hairyfigment

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Hesitant to bet while sick, but I'll offer max bet $20k at 25:1.

The basic definition of evidence is more important than you may think. You need to start by asking what different models predict. Related: it is often easier to show how improbable the evidence is according to the scientific model, than to get any numbers at all out of your alternative theory.

>Instead it just means that Bob shouldn't rely on his company doing the fastest and easiest thing and having it turn out fine. Instead Bob should expect to make sacrifices, either burning down a technical lead or operating in (or helping create) a regulatory environment where the fastest and easiest option isn't allowed.

The above feels so bizarre that I wonder if you're trying to reach Elon Musk personally. If so, just reach out to him. If we assume there's no self-reference paradox involved, we can safely reject your proposed alternatives as obviously impossible; they would have zero credibility even if AI companies weren't in an arms race, which appears impossible to stop from the inside unless all the CEOs involved can meet at Bohemian Grove.

See, that makes it sound like my initial response to the OP was basically right, and you don't understand the argument being made here. At least one Western reading of these new guidelines was that, if they meant anything, then the bureaucratic obstacle they posed for AGI would greatly reduce the threat thereof. This wouldn't matter if people were happy to show initiative - but if everyone involved thinks volunteering is stupid, then whose job is it to make sure the official rules against a competitive AI project won't stop it from going forward? What does that person reliably get for doing the job?

All of that makes sense except the inclusion of "EA," which sounds backwards. I highly doubt Chinese people object to the idea of doing good for the community, so why would they object to helping people do more good, according to our best knowledge?

I note in passing that the elephant brain is not only much larger, but also has many more neurons than any human brain. Since I've no reason to believe the elephant brain is maximally efficient, making the same claim for our brains should require much more evidence than I'm seeing.

What are you trying to argue for? I'm getting stuck on the oversimplified interpretation you give for the quote. In the real world, smart people such as Leibniz raised objections to Newton's mechanics at the time, objections which sound vaguely Einsteinian and not dependent on lots of data. The "principle of sufficient reason" is about internal properties of the theory, similar to Einstein's argument for each theory of relativity. (Leibniz's argument could also be given a more Bayesian formulation, saying that if absolute position in space is meaningful, then a full description of the 'initial state' of the universe needs to contain additional complexity which has zero predictive value in order to specify that location.) Einstein, in the real world, expressed confidence in general relativity prior to experimental confirmation. What Eliezer is talking about seems different in degree, but not in kind.

Out of curiosity, what do you plan to do when people keep bringing up Penrose?

Pretty sure that doesn't begin to address the reasons why a paranoid dictator might invade Taiwan, and indeed would undo a lot of hard work spent signaling that the US would defend Taiwan without committing us to nuclear war.

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