one conceptual contribution I'd put forward for consideration is whether this question may more about emotions or social equilibria than about reaching a reasoned intellectual consensus. it's worth considering how a relatively proximate/homogenous group of people tends to change its beliefs. for better or worse, everything from viscerally compelling demonstrations of safety problems to social pressure to coercion or top-down influence to the transition from intellectual to grou... (read more)
surprisingly powerful demonstration soon could change things too, 1% seems low. look at how quickly views can change about things like it's just the flu, current wave of updating from gpt3 (among certain communities), etc
my (quickly-made) snapshot: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/dmtz3sNSY
one conceptual contribution I'd put forward for consideration is whether this question may more about emotions or social equilibria than about reaching a reasoned intellectual consensus. it's worth considering how a relatively proximate/homogenous group of people tends to change its beliefs. for better or worse, everything from viscerally compelling demonstrations of safety problems to social pressure to coercion or top-down influence to the transition from intellectual to grou... (read more)