Will AI progress slow down? Current frontier AI models cost $100M+ to train, but in the old scaling law pre-training paradigm this was a one-off cost that scaled well i.e. it had a low marginal cost per query. Now this paradigm has now hit diminishing returns: New frontier models trained...
This is my opinionated summary of Yglesias’ (former guest on 80k podcast) recent analysis on how to give effectively to moderate Democrats this election. Rather than doom scrolling and only reading about the US election, Americans should do something and donate effectively to get moderate Democrats elected. You can donate...
Abstract Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just 27 years. The...
Regulators should review the 2014 DeepMind acquisition. When Google bought DeepMind in 2014, no regulator, not the FTC, not the EC's DG COMP, nor the CMA, scrutinized the impact. Why? AI startups have high value but low revenues. And so they avoid regulation (and tax, see below). Buying start-ups with...
Let's Fund researches pressing problems, like climate change, and then crowdfunds for nonprofits working on effective policy solutions. One such policy is clean energy innovation (e.g. via more grant funding for scientists to invent better solar panels). Making clean energy cheaper has many benefits because it reduces: 1. Emissions 2....
The Bletchley Declaration was just released at the At AI Safety Summit. Tl;dr: The declaration underscores the transformative potential and risks of AI. Countries, including major global powers, commit to harnessing AI's benefits while addressing its challenges, especially the dangers of advanced "frontier" AI models. Emphasizing international collaboration, the declaration...
> 'It is hard to favor unspecified changes in the rules. I don't think Google should be able to buy Waze, nor should Facebook buy Instagram.' Richard Thaler, Chicago Booth, Nobel laureate > > 'We need to increase scrutiny of acquisitions of related businesses, e.g. WhatsApp by Facebook' José Scheinkman,...