LESSWRONG
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helicase
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Happy paths and the planning fallacy
helicase3y30

one theory that seems to work is people are pretty good at median time estimates, but a lot of uncertainty + how time estimates can never be negative = there's a huge right-tail skew, so some tasks will blow up and completely dominate your average/total time.

(based on https://erikbern.com/2019/04/15/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model.html)

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No, Really, I've Deceived Myself
helicase11y20

Your entire post is basically redefining words. You specify that Christian "faith" is really "faith in things that cannot be proven". A Christian who "knows" is really "one who feels extremely confident". And "belief" is now "fight or flight response". These aren't the concepts the original post is about.

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Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
helicase11y10

This actually seems to be explicitly represented in (Mandarin) Chinese:
"须要" cannot be used with nouns, and prescribes that something should be done in a certain way (instrumental values)
"需要" is mostly for nouns, and indicates that you need it/should have it (terminal values)

Or, the difference between these two programming paradigms:

  • Imperative languages specify how you want the computer to do something (sometimes down to the machine code level)
  • Functional languages specify what kind of result you want (add these two sets of numbers together, I don't care how, multithread if appropriate)
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