It’s an open secret that essentially all major AI companies are burning cash and running at massive losses. If progress is slow enough such that it requires X years of continued funding to achieve AI capabilities at least useful enough to produce a net ROI, at what value of X...
For the purpose of this post, “getting famous” means “building a large, general (primarily online) audience of people who agree with/support you”. If you believe that slowing down or pausing AI development is a good idea, and you believe this should be official policy, you’re going to need a large...
There’s a measurement issue on the beauty question as well. Height is trivial to quantify, but what is the unit of measurement of beauty?
There are definitely consistent biologically rooted norms of what is beautiful, but this is a very controversial and culturally loaded issue that would make any taxation scheme (or any other policy relying on some measured “beauty” trait) far more difficult to pull off.
Possible, but seems unlikely. Unless there’s some verified record, the mere fact he may have taken a valid test is very weak evidence that his claimed scores are accurate and not exaggerated.
Just leaving this here on the off chance this comment counts and I can claim the bitcoin.
This comes across as total nonsense.
Perhaps the jailbreaking issue is easier to grasp.
“All modern AIs can be jailbroken to act dangerously.
Nobody knows how to solve this.
When we get really powerful AI, bad guys can use it to kill millions, maybe billions”
I am willing to bet you at 5:1 odds in your favour that OpenAI does not lose more than 50% of its valuation within 1 year from today for up to $1000 of my own money.
It’s an open secret that essentially all major AI companies are burning cash and running at massive losses.
If progress is slow enough such that it requires X years of continued funding to achieve AI capabilities at least useful enough to produce a net ROI, at what value of X will the economics collapse, resulting in a major downscaling or total collapse of these companies?
Grok 4 doesn’t appear to be a meaningful improvement over other SOTA models. Minor increases in benchmarks are likely the result of Goodharting.
I expect that GPT 5 will be similar, and if it is, this gives greater credence to diminishing returns on RL & compute.
It appears the only way we will see continued exponential progress is with a steady stream of new paradigms like reasoning models. However, reasoning models are a rather self-suggesting and low-hanging fruit, and new needle-moving ideas will become increasingly hard to come by.
As a result, I’m increasingly bearish on AGI within 5-10 years, especially as a result of merely scaling within the current paradigm.
There's a good overview of his views expressed in this manifold thread.
Basically:
It’s starting to really feel like we’re in the process of AI improvement fizzling out and companies are merely disguising this with elaborate products.
For the purpose of this post, “getting famous” means “building a large, general (primarily online) audience of people who agree with/support you”.
If you believe that slowing down or pausing AI development is a good idea, and you believe this should be official policy, you’re going to need a large number of (if not most) people to also agree that slowing down or pausing AI is a good idea. On this issue, being correct is insufficient, you need to be correct in public, in front of as many people as possible.
In a world where ~70% of people think that AI doom is sci-fi, and that the future will be business as usual but... (read 752 more words →)
Banter declares interest and leads to mutual laughs. When you laugh it’s a good excuse to touch/make contact. Contact becomes more and more common, and the “excuses” for making contact become less and less. Eventually once you’re both comfortable making contact and are close together, there’s some lull in the conversation, and you fill this lull by leaning in and kissing them. Once you’re kissing you’re able to escalate physical contact until you eventually have sex.