This analysis assumes that if Russia uses nuclear weapons:
Military response from NATO is the worst outcome and largest deterrent, and
China, India and the rest of the world don't have interest in the nuclear issue and their relations with Russia would not change.
For Russian nuclear brinkmanship to be effective, atomic weapon use would need an outcome without complete isolation and regime collapse after a military win. Becoming another North Korea would be huge loss for Russia and put the Putin's regime in danger.
Putin's regime wants to frame the war as NATO-Russia military conflict. Refusing to play the game and communicating that the response for Kaboom would be maximum pain and no gain is more likely [1]
WH is working trough China and India to communicate that using nuclear weapons would result a crippling unified economic and diplomatic response, even from Russia’s friends and neutral parties.
China has already signaled and messaged to everyone that China will consider the use of nuclear weapons unacceptable.
Dangers of giving up to nuclear blackmail:
Russia can use the same tactic again to get some other thing.
It sets global precedent (North Korea and others are watching).
[1]: During Obama's presidency NSC wargamed against Russia’s new nuclear strategy. Russia invades Baltics and uses low-yield nuclear weapon against German weapons storage. Principals level wargame chose not to use nuclear response. source: "The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War" (2020) by Fred Kaplan.
This analysis assumes that if Russia uses nuclear weapons:
For Russian nuclear brinkmanship to be effective, atomic weapon use would need an outcome without complete isolation and regime collapse after a military win. Becoming another North Korea would be huge loss for Russia and put the Putin's regime in danger.
Putin's regime wants to frame the war as NATO-Russia military conflict. Refusing to play the game and communicating that the response for Kaboom would be maximum pain and no gain is more likely [1]
WH is working trough China and India to communicate that using nuclear weapons would result a crippling unified economic and diplomatic response, even from Russia’s friends and neutral parties.
China has already signaled and messaged to everyone that China will consider the use of nuclear weapons unacceptable.
Dangers of giving up to nuclear blackmail:
[1]: During Obama's presidency NSC wargamed against Russia’s new nuclear strategy. Russia invades Baltics and uses low-yield nuclear weapon against German weapons storage. Principals level wargame chose not to use nuclear response. source: "The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War" (2020) by Fred Kaplan.