Built in to the premise of the question is that Earth values Ceres' loyalty more than Mars (otherwise Mars presumably wouldn't be able to use the prediction market as a hedge). I agree (I think?) that the prediction market lets you outsource the work to space pirates, but it seems also necessary to point out that at Earth is sending at least as much money as a counter force (encouraging 3rd parties to keep Ceres loyal).
Built in to the premise of the question is that Earth values Ceres' loyalty more than Mars (otherwise Mars presumably wouldn't be able to use the prediction market as a hedge). I agree (I think?) that the prediction market lets you outsource the work to space pirates, but it seems also necessary to point out that at Earth is sending at least as much money as a counter force (encouraging 3rd parties to keep Ceres loyal).