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Metaknowledge - Improving on the Wisdom of Crowds

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[Link] SSC: It's Bayes All The Way Up

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The AI That Pretends To Be Human

3 min read
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Against Expected Utility

5 min read
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Summoning the Least Powerful Genie

3 min read
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Approximating Solomonoff Induction

2 min read
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Recent Comments

That's unlikely. By the late 19th century there was no stopping the industrial revolution. Without coal maybe it would have slowed down a bit. But science was advancing at a rapid pace, and various other technologies from telephones to electricity were well on their way. It's hard for us to imagine ...(read more)

>we have nuclear weapons that are likely visible if fired en mass.

Would we be able to detect nuclear weapons detonated light years away? We have trouble detecting detonations on our own planet! And even if we did observe them, how would we recognize it as an alien invasion vs local conflict, or go...(read more)

First of all, the Earth has been around for a very very long time. Even slowly expanding aliens should have hit us by now. The galaxy isn't that big relative to the vast amounts of time they have probably been around. I don't feel like this explains the fermi paradox.

If aliens wanted to prevent us...(read more)

Well we have plausible reason to believe in aliens. The copernican principle, that the Earth isn't particularly special and the universe is enormous. There's literally no reason to believe angels and demons are plausible.

And god do I hate skeptics and how they pattern match everything "weird" to r...(read more)

I think a concrete example is good for explaining this concept. Imagine you flip a coin and then put your hand over it before looking. The state of the coin is already fixed on one value. There is no probability or randomness involved in the real world now. The uncertainty of it's value is entirely ...(read more)

From *Surely You're Joking Mr. Feynman*:

>Topology was not at all obvious to the mathematicians. There were all kinds of weird possibilities that were “counterintuitive.” Then I got an idea. I challenged them: "I bet there isn't a single theorem that you can tell me - what the assumptions are and w...(read more)

Yudkowsky has changed his views a lot over the last 18 years though. A lot of his earlier writing is extremely optimistic about AI and it's timeline.

This is by far my favorite form of government. It's a great response whenever the discussion of "democracy is the best form of government we have" comes up. Some random notes in no particular order:

Sadly getting support for this in the current day is unlikely because of the huge negative associati...(read more)

In the first draft of the lord of the rings, the Balrog ate the hobbits and destroyed middle Earth. Tolkien considered this ending unsatisfactory, if realistic, and wisely decided to revise it.

It's really going to depend on your interests. I guess I'll just dump my favorite channels here.

I enjoy some math channels like [Numberphile](, [computerphile](, [standupmaths]( more)