Howie Lempel

I think depends on context and what you're trying to use the term for. In the original sentence that was quoted, I think "the justice system" or "law enforcement" would have worked though colloquially, some people would have misunderstood both as just implying the criminal side. 

I think "the legal system," "legal conflict," or just "the law" also would've basically worked though each might have a slightly different connotation.

Fwiw, "civil justice" is in fact used to refer to (many?) parts of the (US?) justice system where people entities sue each other. It's true the phrase is less common (in part because criminal justice reform is a hot button issue) and I'm not surprised you haven't heard it.

Here's an example of a reputable seeming organisation using it this way. https://instituteforlegalreform.com/blog/what-is-civil-justice-and-why-is-it-important/

Having spent two years in law school, I feel pretty confident that Daniel's right about this.

"I'm pretty sure that most EAs I know have ~100% confidence that what they're doing is net positive for the long-term future"

Fwiw, I think this is probably true for very few if any of the EAs I've worked with, though that's a biased sample.

I wonder if the thing giving you this vibe might be they they actually think something like "I'm not that confident that my work is net positive for the LTF but my best guess is that it's net positive in expectation. If what I'm doing is not positive, there's no cheap way for me to figure it out, so I am confident (thoug... (read more)

Fyi - this series of posts caused me to get a blood test for nutritional deficiencies, learn that I have insufficient vitamin D and folic acid, and take supplements on a bunch of days that I otherwise would not have (though less often than I should given knowledge of a deficiency). Thanks!

Whoops - thanks!

Thanks for this! I found this much more approachable than other writing on this topic, which I've generally had trouble engaging with because it's felt like it's (implicitly or explicitly) claiming that: 1) this mindset is right for ~everyone; and 2) there are ~no tradeoffs (at least in the medium-term) for (almost?) anyone.

Had a few questions:

Your goals and strategies might change, even if your values remain the same.

Have your values in fact remained the same?

For example, as I walked down the self-love path I felt my external obligations start to drop awa

Someone's paraphrase of the article: "I actually think they're worse than before, but being mean is bad so I retract that part"

Weyl's response: "I didn’t call it an apology for this reason."

https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1446337463442575361

First of all, I think the books are beautiful. This seems like a great project to me and I'm really glad you all put it together.

I didn't think of this on my own but now that Ozzie raised it, I do think it's misleading not to mention (or at least suggest) that this is selecting the best posts from a particular year in a salient way on the cover.[1] This isn't really because anybody cares whether it's from 2018 or 2019. It's because I think most reasonable readers looking at a curated collection of LessWrong posts titled "Epistemology," "Agency," or "Alignm... (read more)

"As far as I can tell, it does not net profits against losses before calculating these fees."
 

I can confirm this is the case based on the time I lost money on an arbitrage because I assumed the fees were on net profits.

On the documents:

Unfortunately I read them nearly a year ago so my memory's hazy. But (3) goes over most of the main arguments we talked about in the podcast step by step, though it's just slides so you may have similar complaints about the lack of close analysis of the original texts.

(1) is a pretty detailed write up of Ben's thoughts on discontinuities, sudden emergence, and explosive aftermath. To the extent that you were concerned about those bits in particular, I'd guess you'll find what you're looking for there.

Thanks! Agree that it'd would've been useful to push on that point some more.

I know Ben was writing up some additional parts of his argument at some point but I don't know whether finishing that up is still something he's working on.

The Podcast/Interview format is less well suited for critical text analysis, compared to a formal article or a LessWrong post, for 3 reasons:

Lack of precision. It is a difficult skill to place each qualifier carefully and deliberately when speaking, and at several points I was uncertain if I was parsing Ben's sentences correctly.

Lack of references. The "Classic AI Risk Arguments" are expansive, and critical text analysis require clear pointers to the specific arguments that are being criticized.

Expansiveness. There are a lot of arguments presented, and man

Do you still think there's a >80% chance that this was a lab release?

[I'm not an expert.]

My understanding is that SARS-CoV-1 is generally treated as a BSL-3 pathogen or a BSL-2 pathogen (for routine diagnostics and other relatively safe work) and not BSL-4. At the time of the outbreak, SARS-CoV-2 would have been a random animal coronavirus that hadn't yet infected humans, so I'd be surprised if it had more stringent requirements.

Your OP currently states: "a lab studying that class of viruses, of which there is currently only one." If I'm right that you're not currently confident this is th... (read more)

I used to play Innovation online here - dunno if it still works. https://innovation.isotropic.org/

Also looks like you can play here: https://en.boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=innovation

Thanks for confirming!

How ill do they have to be? If a contact is feeling under the weather in a nonspecific way and has a cough, is that enough for them to get tested?

Do you feel like you have any insight into whether underreporting of mild/minimally symptomatic/asymptomatic cases?

I was able to buy hand sanitizer after going through security at JFK on Sunday but I wouldn't count on that. Fwiw, Purell bottles small enough to take through security seem pretty common.

Seems possible but I don't really understand where China's claims about asymptomatic cases are coming from so I've been hesitant about putting too much weight on them. Copying some thoughts on this over from a FB comment I wrote (apologies that some of it doesn't make total sense w/o context).

tl;dr I'm pretty unsure whether China actually has so few minimally symptomatic/asymptomatic cases.

---

Those 320,000 people were at fever clinics, so I think none of them should be asymptomatic.

The report does say "Asymptomatic infection h