hwold

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The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence

In general Perpetuals trade above the price of the underlying coins

I’m confused by this. Doesn’t this means that long positions almost always pays short positions, even if the index is increasing ? If so, why would anyone go long on the future ?

What’s the point of buying bitcoins in your scheme ?

An Untrollable Mathematician Illustrated

I don’t understand where that 1/2 comes from. Unless I have made a gross mistake P(A|A => B) < P(A) even if P(A&B) > P(A&not(B)). In your first example, if I swap P(AB) and P(A&not(B)) so that P(AB) = .5 and P(A&not(B))=.3 then P(A|A=>B) = .5/.7 ~ 0.71 < 0.8 = P(A).

Open thread, May 22 - May 28, 2017

You’re right, the 2^(-3/4) (and the 2^1/4) is probably quantitatively wrong (unless each side is perfectly heat-conducing but both are isolated from each other. Or if the planet is a coin facing the sun. You know, spherical cows in a vacuum…). But I don’t think that changes the qualitative conclusion, which hold as long as the bright side is hotter but not twice as hotter than the perfectly-heat-conducing planet.

Open thread, May 22 - May 28, 2017

Given perfect conduction (uniform surface temperature, bright side and dark side have the same temperature at all times), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-body_radiation#Temperature_relation_between_a_planet_and_its_star applies : temperature does not depend on rotation speed. Then T = T_sun sqrt(R_sun/(2D)) ; it is the temperature T that balance incoming radiation P_inc = pi (R_planet^2) (R_sun^2) (T_sun^4)/(D^2) and emitted radiation P_em = 4 pi (R_planet^2) * T^4

Let's suppose no conduction at all. The bright side and the dark side does not exchange heat at all. Let's take two limiting cases : tide-locked planet, and an "infinitely fast" fliping planet.

In the first case, the dark side of the planet is at absolute 0. The bright side of the planet receives the same incoming radiation but emit half its radiation (halved surface) -- change 4 pi to 2 pi in P_em. Its temperature is T_bright = 2^(1/4) T. Average temperature of the planet is (0+T_bright)/2=2^(-3/4) T

In the second case, each side gets half the incoming power from the sun and radiates half the energy (surface halved). Average surface temperature of the planet is the same that the average surface temperature of any side, which is the same temperature that the perfectly conducting planet, T (the .5 from halved incoming power and .5 from halved outgoing radiation cancel each other).

So : rotation raises temperature of a non-perfectly-heat-conducing planet, bringing its surface temperature closer to the perfectly-heat-conducting planet surface temperature.

Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015

Yes, "intrication" is the standard translation of "entanglement" in QM. But nobody else uses it, and therefore I fear there is an obvious failure mode where someone Googles it and start shouting "WTF is that?"

Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015

"évidence" the noun is just a shorthand for "obvious thing" (most typical usage is « C’est l’évidence même » = “It’s obvious”. « Ce n’est pas la peine d’asséner de telles évidences » = “Such obvious things are not worth stating”).

Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015

Great suggestion, I’ll look into that.

Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015

Yes, that means « obvious »/« self-evident »

Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015

I’m trying to translate some material from LessWrong for a friend (interested with various subjects aborded here, but can’t read english…), and I’m struggling to find the best translation for “evidence”. I have many candidates, but every one of them is a little bit off relative to the connotation of "evidence". Since it’s a so central term in all the writings here, I figured out that it could not be bad to spend a little time finding a really good translation, rather than a just-okayish one.

English readers :

  • Could you find a few different sentences that would cover all (slighty differenrt) usages of evidence ? The objective is, if my translation fit well in all those propositions, there is good chances that it will fit well in everything i may want to translate. For example, from wiki : “Evidence for a given theory is the observation of an event that is more likely to occur if the theory is true than if it is false” “Generalization from fictional evidence” “Conservation of expected evidence”. I except that finding a translation that will cover equally well those three usages will basically cover any usage, but can you think of a 4th usage that may prove problematic even for a term that fit well for the 3 others ?
  • What would be the less bad synonym of “evidence” : clue, proof, observation, sign (that’s basically my best candidates, translated back in english). I dislike all of them, but that’s the best candidates I found, translated back in english. (substitute evidence in all the test sentences abole, and you will understand my problem. “Clue for a given theory…” is somewhat good, but “conservation of expected clue” less so…)

French readers, if any :

J’ai comme candidats : « preuve », « indice », « signe », « observation ». D’autres propositions ? Laquelle vous semble la meilleure ?

Thanks for your cooperation.

(and don’t get me started on “entangled with”, I think I will lose much hair trying to find an acceptable translation for that one. French sucks.)

Rationality Quotes Thread February 2015

Can’t tell for the Romantic Manifesto, but in Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand uses the word “value” as a synonym of “rule of conduct”. For example, she argue that “rational evaluation” is a correct value for man in the same way that “flying” is a correct value for birds.

She calls her philosophy objectivism because the thinks that correct values, which means rules of conduct that leads to environmental fitness (in her words says : “survival”), are objective.

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