Icehawk78's Posts

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Why I haven't signed up for cryonics

I can't say on behalf of advancedatheist, but others who I've heard make similar statements generally seem to base them on a manner of factor analysis; namely, assuming that you're evaluating a statement by a self-proclaimed transhumanist predicting the future development of some technology that currently does not exist, the factor which best predicts what date that technology will be predicted as is the current age of the predictor.

As I've not read much transhumanist writing, I have no real way to evaluate whether this is an accurate analysis, or simply cherry picking examples of the most egregious/popularly published examples (I frequently see Kurzweil and... mostly just Kurzeil, really, popping up when I've heard this argument before).

[As an aside, I just now, after finishing this comment, made the connection that you're the author that he cited as the example, rather than just a random commenter, so I'd assume you're much more familiar with the topic at hand than me.]

Why I haven't signed up for cryonics

Presumably, the implication is that these predictions are not based on facts, but had their bottom line written first, and then everything else added later.

[I make no endorsement in support or rejection of this being a valid conclusion, having given it very little personal thought, but this being the issue that advancedatheist was implying seems fairly obvious to me.]

Prisoner's Dilemma (with visible source code) Tournament

Except that over some threshold, any Anti-Absolutism bots (which have some way of "escaping" while still containing the same first 117 characters, like having a C preprocessor directive that redefines TRUE to equal FALSE) would necessarily be superior.

LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance

Personally, I (and I assume many others) would have a drastically different response than any of these four.

Parent: You need to [cook/clean, job/dress well], or what person would want to marry you? Child: Why should I learn these skills for the benefit of someone else, rather than for myself?

Regardless of the interest or not in marriage, these are skills/actions that are useful for anyone, marriage-oriented or not, to have, simply to live as a socially well-rounded adult. (Obviously, alternate options are available, such as getting such a well-paying job that you can pay for a maid/chef, or some alternate situation in which "getting a good job" is unnecessary to your well-being, as well.)

Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration

These don't use any form of natural language recognition - they work by having very rigidly defined responses that they can interpret (ie "say 'one' for hard to recognize or easily obfuscated department").

Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration

It seems strange to call Siri ubiquitous when smartphone penetration among teenagers is less than 50%.

It also seems strange to call Siri ubiquitous when, on top of that, iOS only has (as of March 2012) between 30-45% market share (depending on how you measure it), which includes numerous models of iPhone that do not have/support Siri, as well as the numerous people who have access to, but don't primarily use Siri on their iPhones. (In my biased sample of software developer/cubicle dweller coworkers, as well as friends and family, I'd estimate maybe 5-10% of those who I know that have iPhones with Siri actually use Siri on a daily basis.)

Does this mean virtual experience software is more popular than the others, or that it's the most popular type of digital entertainment when you look beyond the others?

By my reading, the statement is saying that music, pictures and movies are more popular than "virtual experience software", and that VES is the next most popular.

Additionally, to respond to Stuart_Armstrong below, without a direct reference, I'd imagine that the Economist simply took into account popularity by sales data, which would ignore things like Pandora/Spotify/YouTube/Reddit usage/browsing that may happen significantly more than paid consumption of music/video (at least for certain segments of society with ubiquitous internet access).

[Poll] Method of Recruitment

I came via MoR which was posted in an IRC chat by [random internet person] for [random unrelated activity]. I've since gotten at least three others (two females, one male) to read MoR, of whom one female (my SO) has come to an LW meetup but doesn't read LW itself much, and one other may start reading the Sequences in the somewhat near future.

Meetup : Interest in Reason Rally meetup?

Oh, that's right, I forgot that a few people were already going.

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