I believe we need a fire alarm.
People were scared of nuclear weapons since 1945, but no one restricted the arms race until The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1961.
We know for sure that the crisis really scared both Soviet and US high commands, and the first document to restrict nukes was signed the next year, 1962.
What kind of fire alarm it might be? That is The Question.
I think an important thing to get people convinced of the importance of AI safety is to find proper "Gateway drug" ideas that already bother that person, so they are likely to accept this idea, and through it get interested in AI safety.
For example, if a person is concerned about the rights of minorities, you might tell them about how we don't know how LLMs work, and this causes bias and discrimination, or how it will increase inequality.
If a person cares about privacy and is afraid of government surveillance, then you might tell them about how AI might make all these problems much worse.
Eh. It's sad if this problem is really so complex.
Thank you. At this point, I feel like I have to stick to some way to align AGI, even if it has not that big chance to succeed, because it looks like there are not that many options.
Thanks for your elaborate response!
But why do you think that this project will take so much time? Why can't it be implemented faster?
Do you have any plans for inter-lab communications based on your evals?
I think, your evals might be a good place for AGI labs to standardize protocols for safety measures.
I think this Wizard of Oz problem in large part is about being mindful and honest with oneself.
Wishful thinking is somewhat the default state for people. It's hard to be critical to own ideas and wishes. Especially, when things like money or career advancement are at stake.
Can you elaborate on your comment?
It seems so intriguing to me, and I would love to learn more about "Why it's a bad strategy if our AGI timeline is 5 years or less"?
I totally agree that it might be good to have such a fire alarm as soon as possible, and looking at how fast people make GPT-4 more and more powerful makes me think that this is only a matter of time.