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On March 6th, jimrandomh predicted that the effectiveness of fever-screening for coronavirus would decline, because the virus would evolve to produce fever later or not at all. Has this happened in countries that have been liberally applying fever-screening?
Epistemic Status: Potential research idea. Time-limited, so not as clear as it could have been. Vingean reflection is the process of trying to anticipate how an agent smarter than you might think, in order to ensure that it will be aligned with your values. This is hard, because "if [an...
I've looked at a few of Stuart Armstrong's posts that he put up related to his research agenda (though only ones before he posted the full agenda), and felt like I was missing some prereqs. My background is in philosophy. What subjects or particular resources should I study to be...
In this post: * A true-false test about octopuses * What is it like to be an octopus? * An exercise in updating on surprising facts * Experiments related to animal suffering and consciousness * The evolution of aging * Should you read Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and...
Epistemic Status: I know basically nothing about any of this, or at least no more than any other LessWronger, I just happened to listen to some podcasts about AI strategy recently and decided to try my hand. Epistemic Effort: Probably about an hour of thought cumulatively, plus maybe two hours...
Epistemic status: Had a valley of bad rationality problem, did some thinking about how to solve it in my own case, thought the results might be useful for other people who have the same problem. (To be clear, I don't yet claim this solution works, I haven't really tried it...
Here are my answers to Alkjash's Hammertime Final Exam. I have selected the difficulty level Steel Cudgel of the Lion. 1. Rationality Technique: Ass-in-Gear Mode This might also be called "buckling-down mode." It's the feeling you get when there is a Yoda Timer running. It's the feeling of being completely...