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Covid 2/4: Safe and Effective Vaccines Aplenty

"That’s the test. Would you put it in your arm rather than do nothing? And if the answer here is no, then, please, show your work."

Seems to be an odd position to take to shift the burden of proof onto the vaccine taker rather than than the scientist.


I think a lot of people, you included, are way overconfident on how transmissible B.1.1.7. is.

No nonsense version of the "racial algorithm bias"

90% of the work ought to go into figuring out what fairness measure you want and why.  Not so easy.  Also not really a "math problem."  Most ML papers on fairness just solve math problems.

Covid 9/10: Vitamin D

A whole paper, huh.


I am contesting the whole Extremely Online Lesswrong Way<tm> of engaging with the world whereby people post a lot and pontificate, rather than spending all day reading actual literature, or doing actual work.

Covid 9/10: Vitamin D

"Unless you’d put someone vulnerable at risk, why are you letting another day of your life go by not living it to its fullest? "

As soon as you start advocating behavior changes based on associational evidence you leave the path of wisdom.


You sure seem to have a lot of opinions about statisticians being conservative about making claims without bothering to read up on the relevant history and why this conservativism might have developed in the field.

What is the interpretation of the do() operator?

You can read Halpern's stuff if you want an axiomatization of something like the responses to the do-operator.

Or you can try to understand the relationship of do() and counterfactual random variables, and try to formulate causality as a missing data problem (whereby a full data distribution on counterfactuals and an observed data distribution on factuals are related via a coarsening process).

Writing Causal Models Like We Write Programs

How is this different from just a regular imperative programming language with imperative assignment?

Causal models are just programs (with random inputs, and certain other restrictions if you want to be able to represent them as DAGs). The do() operator is just imperative assignment.

LessWrong Coronavirus Link Database

Here are directions:

I think the sorts of people I want to see this blog website will know what to do with the information on it.

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