Very thoughtful analysis.
I never saw xAI as really in "the race". For me it's always been OpenAI vs Anthropic vs GDM.
And seeing you connect the dots that xAI could become a GDM-like lab inside SpaceX totally makes sense. I think Musk first want to IPO SpaceX then will come the merger with Tesla. And somewhere in between now and end of 2027 I could see xAI become a GDM-like lab.
The other route I see possible is xAI becoming more like Apple and rely on partnerships. Apple failed hard with Siri and now is relying on Gemini to power their own AI.
The deal with Cursor. Then the deal with Anthropic. Something is cooking.
This was very insightful and I understand it's very raw. 2 questions : do you mean "hand off" in the sense of delegate or full transfer? you mentioned "trust" and "decision-making" but what about accountability?