this seems like a comment that it seems reasonable to disagree with (e.g. think that habryka is wrong and subsequent evidence will not show what he predicts it will show) but it seems straightforwardly good epistemics to make clear predictions about which claims will and won't be falsified in the upcoming post, so I'm not sure why this comment is as being downvoted more than disagree voted (or downvoted at all).
am I confused about what karma vs agreement voting is supposed to signify?
While DeepMind hasn't been in quite as much in the limelight as OpenAI over the past several months, I would disagree that it hasn't had much hype over the past several years. GATO (a generalist agent) and AlphaCode seemed pretty hype-y to me, and to a lesser extent so were AlphaFold and Flamingo.
This Manifold market is for predicting which will be the "top-3" AI labs based on twitter buzz and hype, and according to the creator DeepMind was top 3 for 2022, and is currently also predicted to be second place for 2023 (though this is clearly not a completely objective measure).
I was also wondering if this was within scope. I haven't cross-posted mine yet, but might.
This initially seemed to give implausibly low numbers for optimal daily sun exposure, which seemed inconsistent with rates of Vitamin D deficiency (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21310306/), though after thinking about it more I may just have unusually high sun exposure and be overestimating how much the median American gets.
The question that you're missing is "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?"