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Don't talk about how other solutions might also be good, and of you're asked about them point out they ways they're not as good.


Hmm, dictation typos


How come this article didn't appear on



"Will XX re-open their borders for inbound flights in December?"

This question resolves positive if at least five international (5) flights land into territorial XX between December 20 and December 25.

  1. Quick Resolution. Make these markets resolve by mid-December. e.g. Morocco has closed borders until Dec 13. Will they re-open after that? If so, is the re-opening in both directions or just for inbound flights? 
  2. Probable Resolution. OK
  3. Limited Hidden Information. This is the one I'm most uncertain about. For some countries, it's unclear who exactly makes these decisions and how much hidden information there might be.
  4. Sources of Disagreement and Interest. (1) Do repatriation flights count as re-opening? (2) Some countries (like Japan, Israel) only allow their own citizens back in, not international travellers. Others (like Morocco) don't even let their citizens back.

just jotting this down for now. can elaborate on the five bullet points later this weekend.


Would love to see markets on when certain countries, like Morocco, Israel and Japan, will re-open their borders.

Essentially, the only reason they have ever closed borders is due to COVID. So the resolution would be straightforward. 

These kind of markets would have high social value, e.g. travelers to those countries hedging.

Solana is no longer a truly amazing investment but it's still worth buying/holding

There doesn't seem to be much evidence backing this claim. And the recent trajectory of Solana all but backs this.


Re BTC-PERP, looks like the funding has flipped negative for the last 24 hours or so:  There are plenty of altcoins with positive funding though, e.g. FTT


And over 30% annually on (or FTX.US for US residents) currently.

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