AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and J. Zachary Mazlish In this post, we point out that short AI timelines would cause real interest rates to be high, and would do so under expectations of either unaligned or aligned AI. However, 30- to 50-year real interest rates are low. We argue...
Jan 10, 2023124