If a six month notice period was the key driver of the timing, I would have very much expected to see the departure announced slightly more than six months from the notable events, rather than (very) slightly less than six months before the notable events. Given Ilya was voting in the majority on November 17th, seems unlikely he would have already resigned six months before the public announcement.
>So, my guess at Leo's reaction is one of RLHF-optimism.
This is more or less what he seems to say according to the transcript -- he thinks we will have legible trustworthy chain of thought at least for the initial automated AI researchers, we can RLHF them, and then use them to do alignment research. This of course is not a new concept and has been debated here ad nauseum but it's not a shocking view for a member of Ilya and Jan's team and he clearly cosigns it in the interview.