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Being right isn't enough. Confidence is very important.

The above comment just helped me realise that the connotation above is why I like the word "credence". Does "credence" have similar problems in other cultures though?

Cambridge Prediction Game

Can you elaborate more on whether there have been noticeable results in either A) taking successful actions based on the most recent predictions or B) improving the forecasting skills of the players? And if so- how were these things measured? How would you prefer to measure them?

Door Ideas

Opening in the center, away from you, for sure. Whether symmetric or asymmetric.

In your scenario of carrying in cargo (whether groceries or, say, a sleeping child), having both swing away is a clear advantage.

I think that does make the door significantly less secure against forced entry, but it there's already a secure outer door that's maybe less important?

Implementing an Idea-Management System

I've been using Roam for about four weeks (found via the Zettelkasten Method article linked in an earlier comment). I wholeheartedly agree with every claim above- Roam lets me freely write down things I want to remember, in a way that I can trust future-me will actually be able to use.

I track commitments using the /TODO feature, and have found that it doesn't even matter when and where I write it (it doesn't even have to be on the page for the relevant project), because all you have to do is browse to the page "TODO" to see all your to-do items.

When you check them off ("{{[[todo]]}}" renders as a clickable checkbox), the word "TODO" gets replaced with "DONE" and thus the item vanishes from the TODO page.

I too make a page for anything I want to mentally upgrade to a "project"; my rule of thumb is anything that is going to require meetings is a 'Project' rather than just a 'Task'. I also throw the #project tag into it somewhere.

I also encourage this as a lifehack: make a page for "?" and periodically review any questions you've written down.

I keep the follow pages in my favorites: TODO, DONE, ?, and any active projects.

A Personal Rationality Wishlist

Yes- maybe they're just very uncommon, but I've never been on a bike that I could gear down low enough that it felt easier to pedal than to take a step, on a moderate hill.

Are there any other Vegas locals that might be interested?

Why Don't Creators Switch to their Own Platforms?

I am actually starting to see this; Droput.tv is one example https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2018/11/19/dropout-tv-review/

But, they still advertise on existing platforms like YouTube, Twitter, etc.

I don't know how that affects this model.

Is the human brain a valid choice for the Universal Turing Machine in Solomonoff Induction?

Wouldn't carrying this analogy to its conclusion mean that you would have to generalize it for a human mind which doesn't already have a bunch of prior understanding of the world? Instead of a universal turing machine, you're using "a universal turing machine that has been taught about witches", which feels like it should be called out as part of the experimental methodology.

So really you would imagine describing the hypothesis and all of the information required to understand the hypotheses to a human that doesn't already know English and isn't already familiar with witches. Rather than a single sentence you'd end up with a book.

I remember somewhere in the sequences the example of Thor causing thunderstorms *feels* simpler to us than weather dynamics, because our brains handwave away the complexity of Thor.

Source: pure speculation and hazy recollection of old LessWrong articles.

An Ontology of Systemic Failures: Dragons, Bullshit Mountain, and the Cloud of Doom

To be more specific, after rereading the article and thinking for a few minutes, the skill seems to be in correctly deciding whether to accept "everything is a little slow and painful!" as a single big symptom (Mountain), or seeing it as an excuse to not examine and uncover the many small symptoms contributing to that feeling (Cloud). Probably a good place for some heuristics on what bad diagnoses look like.

An Ontology of Systemic Failures: Dragons, Bullshit Mountain, and the Cloud of Doom

The difference between Mountains and Clouds seems to be the most critical. They're both described as "problems with many small causes", and now I know they need different strategies, but I don't feel well equipped to notice differences, if any.

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