By another bizarre coincidence, I planned to start doing and recording pomodoros in 2020.
(For proof here's the blog post from yesterday where I mention it though it's mostly about other things. Also I realize now I published this post after yours but I just checked lesswrong.)
Nice list! Some other ideas: on 10: Consider Magnesium. (Citrate as opposed to Oxide. Avoid supplements that also have vitamin D) I've found it to relax me before bed. I take it in addition to some melatonin. re 7, 20, 41, the general idea of having a mental routine in bed: A mental habit I have before bed is to go over my day. Usually twice, once at a high level and then again trying to remember all the details (instead of thinking, "then I read some things on lw" try to remember all the posts in detail). I also highly recommend blue blight blocking glasses. I know a lot of people have flux but I think they're really overestimating its effectiveness. Look around your room. If you can perceive blue objects as blue then in my opinion there's too much blue light. Ideally they should appear black.
I've done these 3 things for about the last year and subjectively I've been sleeping a bit better. But I never collected any data and I never had a serious problem sleeping either. Good luck solving your problem!
Small typo: in "As I noted last time, I noticed after writing this that a Local Farmer’s Market was Google’s top response to asking for an example of imperfect competition." You should write perfect not imperfect.
Correlations don't necessarily raise or lower the joint probability of several events. Suppose there are two events:
and both are monotone functions of another variable, our competence. Then if we're not competent enough to align AGI then maybe we're also not competent enough to build AGI at all so there is no problem. Here the events correlate in a helpful way. This example illustrates what I think Paul means by "weakness in one area compensates for strength in the other".
Your model could also be that there are two events:
Here if we're not competent enough to solve 1 that's some evidence that we won't be competent enough to solve 2. So the events correlate in an unhelpful way.
I think the need for a nuanced view of the correlations between the events in your model of the future is what Paul means when he says "a little bit here and a little bit here and a little bit here".
Fixed
You can improve your tex formatting by putting your text in \text{}
You're definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.
I'm not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality, Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I'm missing an easy application of Bayes though?
Thanks for your comment. I'll look into those other problems.
Thanks for your detailed reply! I'll look into that reference.
Google Keep has this feature if you don't want to use a whole app for this feature. On any note you can click the bell to make it notify you at a set time and on a set schedule.
(I really like Keep as a note taking app but haven't tried Apple notes, evernote or others so I didn't recommend it at the top level)