jaek

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One Year of Pomodoros

By another bizarre coincidence, I planned to start doing and recording pomodoros in 2020.

(For proof here's the blog post from yesterday where I mention it  though it's mostly about other things. Also I realize now I published this post after yours but I just checked lesswrong.)

Babble challenge: 50 ways of solving a problem in your life

Nice list! Some other ideas: on 10: Consider Magnesium. (Citrate as opposed to Oxide. Avoid supplements that also have vitamin D) I've found it to relax me before bed. I take it in addition to some melatonin. re 7, 20, 41, the general idea of having a mental routine in bed: A mental habit I have before bed is to go over my day. Usually twice, once at a high level and then again trying to remember all the details (instead of thinking, "then I read some things on lw" try to remember all the posts in detail). I also highly recommend blue blight blocking glasses. I know a lot of people have flux but I think they're really overestimating its effectiveness. Look around your room. If you can perceive blue objects as blue then in my opinion there's too much blue light. Ideally they should appear black.

I've done these 3 things for about the last year and subjectively I've been sleeping a bit better. But I never collected any data and I never had a serious problem sleeping either. Good luck solving your problem!

Imperfect Competition

Small typo: in "As I noted last time, I noticed after writing this that a Local Farmer’s Market was Google’s top response to asking for an example of imperfect competition." You should write perfect not imperfect.

Conversation with Paul Christiano

Correlations don't necessarily raise or lower the joint probability of several events. Suppose there are two events:

  1. We build AGI
  2. We align AGI

and both are monotone functions of another variable, our competence. Then if we're not competent enough to align AGI then maybe we're also not competent enough to build AGI at all so there is no problem. Here the events correlate in a helpful way. This example illustrates what I think Paul means by "weakness in one area compensates for strength in the other".

Your model could also be that there are two events:

  1. We align AGI
  2. We coordinate to not build AGI if we can't solve 1.

Here if we're not competent enough to solve 1 that's some evidence that we won't be competent enough to solve 2. So the events correlate in an unhelpful way.

I think the need for a nuanced view of the correlations between the events in your model of the future is what Paul means when he says "a little bit here and a little bit here and a little bit here".

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

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Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

You're definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.

I'm not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality, Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I'm missing an easy application of Bayes though?

Thoughts from a Two Boxer
jaek2y3Ω2

Thanks for your comment. I'll look into those other problems.

Thoughts from a Two Boxer
jaek2y3Ω2

Thanks for your detailed reply! I'll look into that reference.