jaek — LessWrong

Google Keep has this feature if you don't want to use a whole app for this feature. On any note you can click the bell to make it notify you at a set time and on a set schedule.

(I really like Keep as a note taking app but haven't tried Apple notes, evernote or others so I didn't recommend it at the top level)

One Year of Pomodoros

jaek6y10

By another bizarre coincidence, I planned to start doing and recording pomodoros in 2020.

(For proof here's the blog post from yesterday where I mention it though it's mostly about other things. Also I realize now I published this post after yours but I just checked lesswrong.)

Babble challenge: 50 ways of solving a problem in your life

jaek6y30

Nice list! Some other ideas: on 10: Consider Magnesium. (Citrate as opposed to Oxide. Avoid supplements that also have vitamin D) I've found it to relax me before bed. I take it in addition to some melatonin. re 7, 20, 41, the general idea of having a mental routine in bed: A mental habit I have before bed is to go over my day. Usually twice, once at a high level and then again trying to remember all the details (instead of thinking, "then I read some things on lw" try to remember all the posts in detail). I also highly recommend blue blight blocking glass... (read more)

Imperfect Competition

jaek7y40

Small typo: in "As I noted last time, I noticed after writing this that a Local Farmer’s Market was Google’s top response to asking for an example of imperfect competition." You should write perfect not imperfect.

Conversation with Paul Christiano

jaek7y70

Correlations don't necessarily raise or lower the joint probability of several events. Suppose there are two events:

We build AGI
We align AGI

and both are monotone functions of another variable, our competence. Then if we're not competent enough to align AGI then maybe we're also not competent enough to build AGI at all so there is no problem. Here the events correlate in a helpful way. This example illustrates what I think Paul means by "weakness in one area compensates for strength in the other".

Your model could also be that there are two events:

... (read more)

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek7yΩ110

Fixed

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

jaek7y10

You can improve your tex formatting by putting your text in \text{}

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

jaek7y*10

You're definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.

I'm not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality, $P (marek fascist | marek passed a fascist policy) = P (marek saw a liberal policy) + P (marek saw 3 fascists) * P (marek fascist)$ Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I'm missing an easy application of Bayes though?

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek7yΩ230

Thanks for your comment. I'll look into those other problems.

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek7yΩ230

Thanks for your detailed reply! I'll look into that reference.

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

jaek

Secret Hitler is a social deception game in the tradition of mafia, the resistance and Avalon ^[1]. You can read the rules here if you aren't familiar. I haven't played social deception games regularly since 2016 but in my mind it's a really good game that represented the state of the art in the genre at that time. I'm going to discuss an interesting situation in which I reasoned poorly.

I was a liberal in a ten player game. The initial table set up, displaying relevant players was,

We passed a fascist article in the first round. The next government was Marek as president and Chancellor a player 3 to the right of Marek ^[2]. Marek passed a fascist article and inspected Sam and declared Sam was fascist to...

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Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek

Ω 97y

I'm writing this for blog day at MSFP. I thought about a lot of things here like category theory, the 1-2-3 conjecture and Paul Christiano's agenda. I want to start by thanking everyone for having me and saying I had a really good time. At this point I intend to go back to thinking about the stuff I was thinking about before MSFP (random matrix theory). But I learned a lot and I'm sure some of it will come to be useful. This blog is about (my confusion of) decision theory.

Before the workshop I hadn't read much besides Eliezer's paper on FDT and my impression was that it was mostly a good way of thinking about making decisions and at least represented progress over EDT and CDT....

(Continue Reading - 1186 more words)