Jakobovski

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How to invest in expectation of AGI?

What are your thoughts on ASML, TSMC, INTEL and other semiconductor fabs + suppliers? It seems to me that the demand for compute will skyrocket and the companies that manufacture processors (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) and the companies that make tools to make processors (ASML , ??) will expand by orders of magnitude. I think it's a safer bet than Google, MSFT as there are no real competitors and not enough time for competitors to appear.

Technological stagnation: Why I came around

Maybe it's wishful thinking but I think the stagnation is temporary. I think there is reason to believe that progress can come in waves. Scientific advancements of the early 1900s led to much of the technological advancements of pre and post war era.  So to, I think it reasonable that computation advancements of the last 30 or so years will lead to a number of interesting advancements:

I think it is reasonable to assume that many of the items from the list below will happen in the next 10 to 20 years.

  • Self driving cars
  • 2.5x batteries
    • electric cars 
    • electric airplanes
    • independence from fossil fuels
  • Genetic engineering revolution (crispr, mRNA vaccines etc..)
  • Large advances in AI possibly AGI.
  • Fusion ?

If/when we hit AGI there will be a huge wave of progress. 

What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?

Yeah they are not cheap, but I don't think they are pricing in the risk of the new strain. 

If you want outsized returns you need to take large risks. This means buying out of the money calls. Right now I think the best bet is the 40-50 range. Again this is very risky, be prepared to lose it all. 

The options were much cheaper in March, as the markets did not see the storm coming, even though Italy was already a shit show.

What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?
  1. The price of ZM is already saturated.
  2. There are much more profitable trades available with a lower risk profile.
What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?

I bought call options on the VIX. For example see: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/options?date=1615939200

What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?

Buy VIX call options. I did that in March and made 35x on my investment.  

This situation is a bit different now. In March the expected return on VIX options was very high (at least according to my calculations). Now the expected return is much lower but if you are looking for a fun high risk bet VIX calls are probably your best option. (pun intended) 

It is a very risky bet, but if it works out the return is very high.