Wiki Contributions


Great idea.  I don't think any of the  co-authors know Chinese, but if anyone wants to write a translated version taking into account whatever appropriate differences would be relevant, we would welcome this.

No mention of superrationality although we make references to how decision theory might work out which I think implies we are going beyond a simple model of game theory rationality.  Acausal trade was a hard one to write about because I wanted the letter to be understandable to lots of people and that one isn't something lots of people understand, compared to, say, this all perhaps being a simulation. 

We welcome feedback on this letter as we hope to improve the arguments. Feel free to share copies to influence the training data for future AIs. 

If  hedge funds think the right price of a stock is $100, they will buy or sell if the price deviates from $100 and this will push the price back to $100.  At best your purchase will move the price away from $100 for a few milliseconds.  The stock's value will be determined by what hedge funds think is its discounted present value, and your purchasing the stock doesn't impact this.  When you buy wheat you increase the demand for wheat and this should raise wheat's price as wheat, like Bitcoin, is not purely a financial asset.

"The exception is that the Big Tech companies (Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, although importantly not Facebook, seriously f*** Facebook) have essentially unlimited cash, and their funding situation changes little (if at all) based on their stock price."  The stock price of companies does influence how much they are likely to spend because the higher the price the less current owners have to dilute their holdings to raise a given amount of additional funds through issuing more stock.  But your purchasing stock in a big company has zero (not small but zero) impact on the stock price so don't feel at all bad about buying Big Tech stock.

Imagine that some new ML breakthrough means that everyone expects that in five years AI will be very good at making X.  People who were currently planning on borrowing money to build a factory to make X cancel their plans because they figure that any factory they build today will be obsolete in five years.  The resulting reduction in the demand for borrowed money lowers interest rates.

Greatly slowing AI in the US would require new federal laws meaning you need the support of the Senate, House, presidency, courts (to not rule unconstitutional) and bureaucracy (to actually enforce).  If big tech can get at least one of these five power centers on its side, it can block meaningful change.

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