Metformin as a rationalist win. For several years I have been taking 2 grams of Metformin a day for anti-aging reasons. There is a vast literature on Metformin and as a mere economist I'm unqualified to summarize it. But my (skin-in-the-game) guess is that all adults over 40 (and perhaps simply all adults) should be taking Metformin and I would love if someone with a bio-background wrote up a Metformin literature review understandable to those of us who understand statistics but not much about medicine. The reason why Metformin might be universally beneficial and yet not generally taken is because no one holds a patent on Metformin (it's cheap), in the US you need a prescription to get it, and the medical system doesn't consider aging to be a disease.
I have bought $400 worth of Trump No contracts on PredictIt which will pay off if Trump loses. The price as of this writing is 61 cents for a contract that pays $1 if Trump loses.
Our estimate of which of the four possibilities is correct is conditional on us living in a universe where we observe that the predictor always guesses correctly. If we put aside cheating (which should almost always be our guess if we observe something happening that seems to defy our understanding of how the universe operates) we should have massive uncertainty concerning how randomness and/or causation operates and thus not assign too low a probability to either (2) or (3).
For next year: Raise $1,000 and convert the money to cash. Setup some device where the money burns if a code is entered, and otherwise the money gets donated to the most effective charity. Have a livestream that shows the cash and will show the fire if the code is entered.
To destroy an aircraft carrier you must first find it and in a war the US would prioritize taking out the enemy's ability to locate our aircraft carriers. Since the carriers move, knowing were one was an hour ago might not be enough information to destroy the carrier. In the next future aircraft carriers might be protected by laser anti-missile systems that could handle having only two seconds to destroy multiple incoming missiles.
Consider the board game Metaforms. It requires you to solve logical puzzles based on colors, shapes, and position.
I got a fantastic answer the first time I tried. I used some of what you wrote as prompt. Part of GPT-3's (Dragon) response was "Now, let's see if I can get you talking about something else. Something more interesting than killing people for no reason."
You might be interested in my co-authored article "An AGI with Time-Inconsistent Preferences."
Sorry no link, but we might do another podcast soon. As to why you should prefer this number, well, Scott Alexander said Greg has "creepy oracular powers".