i tried to explain that in various ways and repeating myself and doesn't sure it useful to do that again, and i get the feeling from that replay that you simply not understand my claim, despite me already made it in previous comment, and it doesn't feel you engage with any of my claims, so here is one last attempt:
if someone who err 1 time out of 100 make the conclusion is time was off, and change his algorithm to one that does not tell his joke, instead of updating his probability to tell this joke slightly less in a way that make him still tell the joke,...
so i obviously prefer to get better at things, and as part of normal life have more training data and become better at things.
and yet, what you describe still look to me like common failure mode. maybe i should just describe it instead, and what is the right reaction in my opinion.
person make jokes, 100 land one not. failure mode is to apologize, and to change the algorithm to avoid the bad joke, and tell only 10 jokes.
the right reaction is to correct, but not over-correct. and in real world trade offs, it mean predictably make mistakes, because there are ...
i know there are people that live like that, but i'm not, and when i do i find that unhealthy. i prefer not to do things just before the deadline. i'm now in time when i write every day too, and it feel good to write early, and to know i did my writing for the day. i like the feeling of accomplishment, and all the day feel like i did something useful in it.
what you describe look to me something like... adaptation to dysfunction, in a way that deny the existence of health. it's actually possible to do the work not on the deadline, and enjoy your free time a...
why you don't find it realistic? i find it very realist. people have so much discretion ability, but not infinity of it. like various cancer and other medical tests - you got some false positives and false negatives, and you can get better, but in lot of cases not infinity better.
my live full of places when i have imperfect algorithm and have no idea how to update. for less adversarial example - i'm not always capable to discern when my friend's cat want to play, aka, may scratch me.
i find the idea that people always know what they did right and any absence of omniscience weaponized ignorance really weird!
i, too, hold economic-based model of apology. apologizing mean to say "i owe you". like if i break something in store, i acknowledge i need to pay for it. which make the whole post feel like it miss the point.
What would it even mean to purportedly accept the cost "on one's ledger" but not change one's behavior going forward?
well, that i owe you. for example, i apologize for spilling the wine of your outfit. can i pay the cleaning price, or the price to replace it? this is not, in any way, mean i will avoid drinking wine in the future, or be more carefu...
if the joke land in 9 times out of 10, and Ben unable to discern when it lands and when not, it's still positive in expectation to tell the joke, and he don't know who to update the algorithm.
if it's 99 out of 100 that land, then it's obvious that the right thing to do is tell the jokes. and try to always learn something from this sound like the road to overfitting. i prefer people who accept that ridiculously good sucess rate of 99%, and apologize on the downside of the endorsed trade-off. it's sure better then... stop doing things that good in expectation because they good only 99% of the time? i really not sure what is the algorithm you advocate here.
while i dislike the word naughtiness and its connotations, i don't see the contradiction. as the post state int he start "They delight in breaking rules, but not rules that matter. ". all Decision Theory rules are rules that matter.
this doesn't answer the question of what rules to break and what not. but you cant be Lawful by following all laws in our way-to bureaucratic society.
my mother think that going outside while wearing pajamas is unthinkable. it can probably be described as naughty. it's also totally harmless.
but also, now that i thought about you...
did you run it? what did you found out?
the thing this post missing is the connection between the Process Crime and Actual Crime. the child have no reason to use the stepstool, beside to eat the cookies, in the vast majority of situations. is it true about lying to banks, or is in situation when Everyone guilty of some crime and the state get to lawfully punish whoever it want, by some criteria that are not written in the law?
this is empirical question with empirical answer, and when i saw disagreements about Process Crimes and Pedantic Rules in real life, it was of the form of "there are legitimate, non-criminal reasons to break this Process Rule" or "this Pedantic Rule is pretty costly to this set or rule-abiding citizens".
interesting, i came to the opposite conclusion. or, more concretely, i found that there are rules that i can follow 95% of the time, and it's actually better then follow it 100% of the time, and there are rules when i simply can't, and i slip all the way down the slippery slope. and a lot of time i can search for differentiator, or more complicated solution.
simple rules need for coordination, when you have about five words. but i have much wider channel to coordinate with future-me, and i should use it to my advantage.
so my lesson was that having rules tha...
And once you have a message you actually need to share, you'll actually be able to express it.
that doesn't look like good advice to me. or, rather, to make sense, one should assume, a priori, that the day will come when one will have "a message you actually need to share". this way of thinking proving too much - why shouldn't I read those trip reports, assuming one day i will need this knowledge, instead?
there are a lot of things one can do with one's time, and most people don't come to situations like that. learning to write better because one day i wi...
there is a high correlation between what voters as a whole want on any single narrow issue, and what the outcome of the black box produces.
I'm way to late to the party, but I'm still reading old posts, and this is evidence that other people may too.
this statement is not true, in the country that I live. there are some narrow issues in which there is large public majority, and the black box produce not-correlated output. and this happen for a long period of time.
For the rest of this comment, I'm going to restrict "fox" to "good-scoring generalist forecaster"
why? this is very much not how I understand it, and I find it hard to even generate hypothesis to how you came to this conclusion. which make the rest of the comment seem irrelevant and missing the point.
foxes are people who go to people that have some big theory, and telling them they are wrong, everyone who try to have one theory is wrong, they should have many theories in their toolbox and use the more appropriate.
basically I understood it ...
I opened a tab with this comment as something I want to answer too, when an opportunity arise for that. it was two years now, and the tab remain open. I wrote two post about that in my blog, and clarified my thinking about the issue a lot. and yet, I still believe what I believed then, although hopefully I'm more capable to express this. not sure if that, English is hard. but, it's worth trying.
here is my opinion, in its most simple form: one should not be cooperation bot.
if I have repeated opportunities to pay 1 unit to get someone 10 units, and the...
small and very belated comment to comment (6): I did, actually believe in things and do things because of the decision theory. I sometimes had the impulse myself, but considered it childish and stupid and basically irrational, as in the past i saw people implement "spite" in really bad way.
then I encountered the decision theory on that, and evidence that people react to incentives more then I thought (I'm not sure if it's a crux - I endorse doing the correct thing even when the relevant people don't react to incentives).
so I changed my mind. I endorse the...
One of the best forums I knew was homeschooling place, that was officially anti-vax. it was really bad at true-seeking, but I learned there so much. it turned out there are a lot of things that doesn't get said in places that are no default-collaborative. my models of people and societies much better because I was there. and also I leaved when I couldn't endure the idea that I'm bad and wrong for pointing out obvious falsehoods.
I don't think you can seek true without pointing out at false thing and saying they are false. but also, this way of thinking tend...
the "it will be used i status based asymmetry" claim look to me like general counterargument to any norms at all. in the same time, it pessimistic in way tat look unjustified to me. there are rules that enforced more or less neutrally, and i see no reason to assume the worst here. LessWrong is not actually the sort of places when the popular kids never get called out.
while the emoticons suggestion is interesting, it's missing the point of building mental habits. like asking myself if I'm dreaming is practice for lucid dreaming. having other people do that loss that benefit. it's also loss the saving throw of avoiding escalating by apologizing,
I actually disagree, it may be true about the other parts of the prefix, but reading something that is tagged as uncharitable rant would make me less inclined to get mad and react uncharitably. the point of the tagging things as rants is to prevent the dynamic when emotions mindkill people and discussions, and saying something is unfair at the beginning produce different emotional reaction.
also, the last time i encountered that sort of prefix it was at part of long post, and was much less hard to parse, as i had context. and it prevented the need to going ...
Can anyone reading this truly deny that those warnings came true from the doom sayer's perspective?
yes. your arrow of causality look backwards to me - I don't see divorce destigmatization - > more divorce. in the divorce case it's clearly more divorce -> destigmatization. i don't remember where to find the posts about how the laws that allow divorce came after the spike in divorce, and not the other way around.
there is important point here. i only recently re-evaluate my opinion on TV and decided the doomers was right there. but it sure look to m...
no, this is not what i said. this is not at all what i said, and i actually said something that is very close to the opposite of that.
i don't know who to communicate if i say something and you come to the conclusion that i believe the opposite of that, so i'm bowing out.