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This and your post on lithium are thoroughly convincing wrt A Chemical Hunger's lithium hypothesis, and some of their other points. 

You seem to acknowledge, however, that CICO doesn't explain the rise in obesity, and for any number of reasons, diet and exercise seem to be largely insufficient explanations. (Correct me if I've misunderstood.) You also seem to believe, in line with prediction markets, that environmental contamination isn't the most likely culprit (or at least the most likely primary culprit). 

Given that, what is the most likely explanation, or, if we don't have one yet, what is the most promising line of research?