As somebody who's been watching AI notkilleveryoneism for a very long time, but is sitting at a bit of a remove from the action, I think I may be able to "see the elephant" better than some people on the inside. I actually believe I see the big players converging...
Everything I worked for in this playground would be hollowed out by the knowledge that I could have just queried a friendly nanny AI to get it for me. Even if it didn’t step in, even if it had set up some system where it couldn’t step in, I personally would feel like something important was missing.
... and yet if you don't build that AI, you'll still know that you could have built it. That, in the end, you had to set up a system where it couldn't step in.
No matter what happens, you'll always know you're hiding from the AI that you could have built. Could still build. Or perhaps from... (read more)
Michael Burry: On that point, many point to trade careers as an AI-proof choice. Given how much I can now do in electrical work and other areas around the house just with Claude at my side, I am not so sure. If I’m middle class and am facing an $800 plumber or electrician call, I might just use Claude. I love that I can take a picture and figure out everything I need to do to fix it.
It's easy to do plumbing or electrical "repairs" in ways that work, but are dangerous or will cause you trouble later on. I've fixed plenty of messes like that. If you have to ask Claude how to do trivial residential repairs, then you aren't competent to know whether Claude is getting it right or not, and to be honest your opinion counts for absolutely nothing.
... but it has a 15 inch longer wheelbase than a Toyota Sienna, because of that choice to put everything between the wheels. That's the length that matters for the beam stress. Which, if I recall correctly, goes as the square of the length. Which is probably why minivans sit up on top of the wheels... which makes them taller. And being narrower and shorter (on edit: meaning vertically) than the minivan actually reduces the rigidity of that unibody.
Anyway, I'm not necessarily saying you can't make it a unibody, but it's going to have to be a lot thicker unibody, so you're trading weight against height, with either one costing you in sticker price and fuel economy.
I don't know, but I suspect that to be rigid enough to support that wheelbase, with all that extra weight in it, the vehicle would have to be much heavier. I don't think an F-150 or a cargo van is even a unibody. If you have to build it on a frame, your vehicle is going to have to get taller as well. Your taller, heavier vehicle no longer has the fuel economy you want... nor the price point.
Well, I dont' worry about acausal extortion because I think all that "acausal" stuff is silly nonsense to begin with.
I very much recommend this approach.
Take Roko's basilisk.
You're afraid that entity A, which you don't know will exist, and whose motivations you don't understand, may find out that you tried to prevent it from coming into existence, and choose to punish you by burning silly amounts of computation to create a simulacrum of you that may experience qualia of some kind, and arranging for those qualia to be aversive. Because A may feel it "should" act as if it had precommitted to that. Because, frankly, entity A is nutty as a fruitcake.
Why, then,... (read more)
Self-driving cars will be a very different level of freedom than the ability to summon a Lyft.
Um, they're pretty much the same thing. The self-driving car may be safer (although the whole process isn't really dangerous to begin with). On the other hand, it won't help you with your bag. Who cares?
All taxis do have the failure modes of "the cloud", though.
Pardoning Juan Orlando Hernández isn't going to advance Trump's political interests in any way, ever. This is a foreigner who has no influence with anybody Trump might want to please, and isn't just unpopular with Trump's opponents, but with his base. Pardoning Changpeng Zhao might please a few crypto bros, but is still surely a net political loss. What power or influence does Trump gain from pardoning Henry Cuellar? He's not going to be reelected to anything.
I suspect Bill Clinton pardoned the Weathermen at least in part to send a signal to other people who might be allies, and also to make a point about their actual cause. Yes, there's usually a... (read more)
I can’t really imagine a guy close enough to trump that he would have this amount of intel yet not have more than 80k in the bank to gamble with.
You're assuming a lot about how close anybody has to be to anything. There's reporting today that the New York Times and the Washington Post both knew in advance about the plan (and didn't report because apparently some kind of "deference" covers intent to act illegally and unconstitutionally).
Things are usually a lot leakier than people think they are.
Also, the bet wouldn't have been a sure thing. It's not like it's rare for an operation like that to fail.
Trump himself issues pardons for around half a million dollars.
Please, I beg you guys, stop fretting about humans "losing control over the light cone", or the like.
Humans, collectively, may get lucky enough to close off some futures where we immediately get paperclipped or worse[1].
That, by itself, would be unusually great control.
Please don't overconstrain it with "Oh, and I won't accept any solution where humans stop being In Charge". Part of the answer may be to put something better In Charge. In fact it probably is. Is that a risk? Yes. Stubborn, human-chauvinistic refusal is probably a much bigger risk.
To get a better future, you may have to commit to it, no take-backsies and no micromanaging.
Any loss is mostly an illusion anyway.... (read more)
As somebody who's been watching AI notkilleveryoneism for a very long time, but is sitting at a bit of a remove from the action, I think I may be able to "see the elephant" better than some people on the inside.
I actually believe I see the big players converging toward something of an unrecognized, perhaps unconscious consensus about how to approach the problem. This really came together in my mind when I saw OpenAI's plugin system for ChatGPT.
I thought I'd summarize what I think are the major points. They're not all universal; obviously some of them are more established than others.
Because AI misbehavior is likely to come from complicated, emergent sources, any
Nope. It's the sort of bad idea that seems good to people who either don't really understand the landscape, or are flailing and self-deluding because they feel such a strong need to feel like they're Doing Something about an actually intractable problem.
There are two main issues:
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... (read 365 more words →)"Defenders" are basically everybody. Most of "everybody" won't jump through hoops to get extra access (and definitely won't try to get around restrictions). They have other things to do. Attackers, on the other hand, will jump