But this doesn’t solve the problem of angry customers and media the way firing a misbehaving employee would. Though I suppose this is more an issue of friction/aversion to change than an actual capabilities issue.
Yeah, but Putin’s been president of Russia for over 20 years and already has a very large, loyal following. There will always be those that enthusiastically follow the party line of the leader. It’s somewhat harder to actually seize power. (None of this is to excuse the actions of Putin or those who support him.)
Likely higher than one in a million, but they can be fired after a failure to allow the company to save face. Harder to do that with a $50M language model.
I think the issue here is that the tasks in question don't fully capture everything we care about in terms of language facility. I think this is largely because even very low probabilities of catastrophic actions can preclude deployment in an economically useful way.
For example, a prime use of a language model would be to replace customer service representative. However, if there is even a one in a million chance that your model will start cursing out a customer, offer a customer a million dollars to remedy an error, or start spewing racial epithets, the model cannot be usefully deployed in such a fashion. None of the metrics in the paper can guarantee, or even suggest, that level of consistency.
One small quibble, you can actually live much more cheaply on rice. A pound of dry rice contains 1600 calories, if you eat 2000 calories a day, you need 5 pounds every 4 days, so a 50 pound bag will last 40 days, meaning you need 9 per year. This has a total cost of $450 at your price. Probably less if you shop around or buy in bulk.
I think you added an extra three zeros during your total year calculations. you list 2.23E15 as the total number of years experienced, but multiplying the total time of 5E4 by the current population of 8E9 gives a total of only 4E14 experience years. The true number must be quite a bit lower as the human population was quite a bit lower than 8 billion for most of that time. This also affects the proportion of experience years which have occurred in living memory. My guess is 20% have occurred since the birth of Kane Tanaka and 10% experienced by living people. This also squares pretty well with your figure of 50% of human experience occurring since 1300. It doesn't really make since for 50% of experience to have occurred since 1300, but only 0.02% since 1903.