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Jimmy Thrasher
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Shift Towards The Hypothesis Of Least Surprise
Jimmy Thrasher4y*20

I was confused by this but think I've figured it out. I'm moderately numerate, but don't have great math intuition.

I was thrown off by the fact that we're talking about individual probabilities where we were talking about odds before. How can you just go to working with probabilities.

I realized that you can do this because log(X/Y) is log(X)-log(Y). So we're moving right based on X (P(e|H)) and left based on Y (P(e|!H)).

It may help those in my boat to call this out. It may be basic, but from my vantage it was a jump that took me a couple hours to figure out.

One more: "probability mass" = "probability" but with a metaphorical bent? If this is correct, it might be worth calling out as well. It came across as an undefined technical term and threw me for a bit as well.

This is an amazing and helpful resource, thank you!

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