jimrandomh

LessWrong developer, rationalist since the Overcoming Bias days. Jargon connoisseur. Currently working on auto-applying tags to LW posts with a language model.

Comments

"Hippy" is an aesthetic, not a specific idea, and an aesthetic can apply to both true ideas and false ideas. This post names the aesthetic and stops there; it doesn't name any specific hippy idea. This creates distance between evaluating the aesthetic, and any specific idea that could be true or false. And if there's nothing to judge as false, then everything is okay, right? The post then provides a supposed reason for objecting to (unspecified things within) the aesthetic: blind demand for a specific sort of rigor, applied inappropriately.

It feels unfair to negatively judge an aesthetic, since aesthetics can be false. So it's tempting to null out the judgement and its associated heuristics.

The problem is, the "hippy" aesthetic includes elements that are genuine red flags for stupid ideas, a historical demographic correlation with groups that invented stupid ideas prolifically, and a collection of jargon corresponding to malformed concepts that will damage your ability to think if you internalize them.

I think it probably meets the definition, but, caveat, it isn't actually out in the relevant sense, so there's some risk that it has a caveat that wasn't on my radar.

P(We invent algorithms for transformative AGI | No derailment from regulation, AI, wars, pandemics, or severe depressions): .8

P(We invent a way for AGIs to learn faster than humans | We invent algorithms for transformative AGI): 1. This row is already incorporated into the previous row.

P(AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr (per human equivalent): 1. This is also already incorporated into "we invent algorithms for transformative AGI"; an algorithm with such extreme inference costs wouldn't count (and, I think, would be unlikely to be developed in the first place).

We invent and scale cheap, quality robots: Not a prerequisite.

We massively scale production of chips and power: Not a prerequisite if we have already already conditioned on inference costs.

We avoid derailment by human regulation: 0.9

We avoid derailment by AI-caused delay: 1. I would consider an AI that derailed development of other AI ot be transformative.

We avoid derailment from wars (e.g., China invades Taiwan): 0.98.

We avoid derailment from pandemics: 0.995. Thanks to COVID, our ability to continue making technological progress during a pandemic which requires everyone to isolate is already battle-tested.

We avoid derailment from severe depressions: 0.99. 

This appears to be someone else's shortform, which was edited so that the shortform container doesn't look like a shortform container anymore.

This is the multiple stages fallacy. Not only is each of the probabilities in your list too low, if you actually consider them as conditional probabilities they're double- and triple-counting the same uncertainties. And since they're all mulitplied together, and all err in the same direction, the error compounds.

I don't recall the source, but I do recall having seen a public source saying: The US air force had a problem with pilots getting buzzed by foreign drones, and not reporting the incidents because of stigma around UFOs. An executive decision was made to solve the problem by removing the stigma.

I can reproduce loss-of-selection on mouseover some of the time on up-to-date Chrome, so, I think probably not browser specific.

Wait, you're running Firefox 88, on Xenial?! Why? What's wrong with you? You're a terrible person.

The main reason WaPo would have delayed is if they wanted additional confirmation/due diligence and didn't have it.

based on the vehicle morphologies and material science testing and the possession of unique atomic arrangements and radiological signatures

That only sounds impressive if you don't think too hard about what it means. It's saying that the fragments are made of a fancy alloy that they can't identify. But every military contractor has materials scientists, and being made of fancy new alloys is completely expected for cutting edge military aircraft.

Load More