Joshua Goings


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Comments gives a useful “Adjusted Positive Tests & Implied Infections” curve for each state, similar to the above normalization, adjusting for testing volume. The implied infections adjusts for the delay in infection vs testing.

As an example, here’s for Florida:

You might find the method of mortality coding interesting, which the CDC and WHO compiles and relies on:

In particular: “For every death that occurs in the US, a physician, coroner, or medical examiner completes a death certificate. The certificate lists details about the cause of death as well as any contributing conditions or injuries.

All death certificates are sent to a state agency, which varies by state but can include the department of health...

... ‘We don’t necessarily take what the certifier or physician writes as the underlying cause of death, because what they may write down may not necessarily be the best underlying cause,’ Anderson says. ‘Even if they do it exactly correctly, since we are looking for something that is most useful from a public health standpoint, we may reselect another cause on the certificate.’”

Wow. So ultimately the mortality statistics are determined by the state (usually heath department) and not the original examiner.

It's incredible. I tried to compare with the COVID-19 deaths, but the chart provided did not seem to be working and only showed unclassified. I worked up a few states like Florida, AZ, TX, NY, and the US based on the link in a blog post here, maybe it will be helpful to look at