jefftk

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My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

If you read the full comments of this thread you will find reports that CEA used legal threats to cover up Leverage related information.

Link? I'm not finding it

Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years

Do you have a better way of estimating the timing of new technologies that require many breakthroughs to reach?

Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years

I'm not sure what you mean by "convincing dirt dynamics simulation and a flock of emulated nematodes"? I'm going to assume you mean the task I described in my post: teach one something, upload it, verify it still has the learned behavior.

Yes, I would still expect it to be at least 58 years away for human scale. The challenges are far larger for humans, and it taking over 40 years from people starting on simulating nematodes to full uploads would be a negative timeline update to me. Note that in 2011 I expected this for around 2021, which is nowhere near on track to do: https://www.jefftk.com/p/whole-brain-emulation-and-nematodes

Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years

In 1970 if a poorly funded research lab said they would get a rocket to land on its tail by 1980 and in 1980 they had not succeeded, would you update your estimated date of success to "centuries"

That isn't the right interpretation of the proxy task. In 2011, I was using progress on nematodes to estimate the timing of whole brain emulation for humans. That's more similar to using progress in rockets landing on their tail to estimate the timing of self-sustaining Mars colony.

(I also walked back from "probably hundreds of years" to "I don't think we'll be uploading anyone in this century" after the comments on my 2011 post, writing the more detailed: https://www.jefftk.com/p/whole-brain-emulation-and-nematodes)

Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years

I would consider 1 human permadeath equal to at least 1 human life that is experiencing the worst possible suffering until the end of the universe.

This is so incredibly far from where I would place the equivalence, and I think where almost anyone would place it, that I'm baffled. You really mean this?

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

I'm generally very anti-woo, but I expect presenting it clearly and without baggage would make it stop working because the participant would be in a different mental state.

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

Programmers below T-5 are expected to earn promotions or to leave.

This changed something like five years ago [edit: August 2017], to where people at level four (one level above new grad) no longer needed to get promoted to stay long term.

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

Neither Jessica nor I said there was no effect on health

I had read "GiveWell's analysis found that, while there was a measurable positive effect on income, there wasn't one on health metrics" as "there was an effect on income that was measurable and positive, but there wasn't an effect on health metrics". Rereading, I think that's probably not what Jessica meant, though? Sorry!

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

I'd expect that to show up in some long-run health metrics

GiveWell discusses this here: https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming

Summary:

  • ~0.1kg weight increase

  • Unusably noisy data on hemoglobin levels

  • No effect on height

While other metrics might show a change, if collected carefully, I think all we know at this point is that no one has done that research? Which is very different from saying that we do know that there is no effect on health?

My experience at and around MIRI and CFAR (inspired by Zoe Curzi's writeup of experiences at Leverage)

while SCI is and was listed as a global health charity, GiveWell's analysis found that, while there was a measurable positive effect on income, there wasn't one on health metrics

That doesn't sound right? They say there is strong evidence that deworming kills the parasites, and weaker evidence that it both improves short term health and leads to higher incomes later in life. But in as much as it improves income, it pretty much has to be doing that via making health better: there isn't really any other plausible path from deworming to higher income. https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming

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