Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners

I'm confused which lesson you think they might be erroneously learning from me? When I offer them bets they do usually lose.

Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners

whether you'd shared your explanation for why there wouldn't be any bees with her before you offered to bet?

I had. When she still didn't believe me I offered the bet.

Why Boston?

The problems have not retained their natural relative difficulty, which is why the introduction and falling costs of Air Conditioning have led to large migration to the Sunbelt.

Why Boston?

If we knew very little about the level of technology in a society or how expensive things work, sort of reasoning might make sense. Fireplaces are simple, heat pumps are not, so we might expect that dealing with excessive cold might be easier than dealing with excessive heat.

This is not at all the situation in which we are having this discussion. The actual mechanisms that people use for heating and cooling are much more complex than the simplest devices capable of the job, and the cost and convenience of cooling relative to heating has changed massively as technology has improved. If you're trying to figure out whether Boston is a good fit for you, I still maintain fireplaces are irrelevant.

Make more land

It looks to me like you're comparing the cost of constructing a unit to the price of renting a bedroom?

I don't think you're counting the cost of infrastructure construction?

Bulk fill is massively cheaper than the quantities you would use for pool removal.

Since this is a seismic area you can't just use bulk fill: you need to do some amount of reinforcement/stabilization.

You're talking about this as if the government would pay for all construction and then own all units and rent them out? I agree that governments are not typically interested in that kind of financing, especially in the US. If you sell the units, or the buildings, however, there is a thriving real estate market that does operate on these time scales.

Why Boston?

Okay, a few months later, and I was wrong. I do think we have decent governance, but our handling of the pandemic has been crummy even in situations where we should have been able to do better.

Why Boston?

For comparing potential cities and climates, the simplicity of the mechanism of adjusting the conditions to human preferences is essentially not a consideration. Cost matters, convenience matters, and I could be convinced that the simplicity of the methods people actually use matters. But fireplaces are irrelevant since essentially no one in Boston is using one as their primary method of heat.

[Meta?] Using the LessWrong codebase for a blog

Our current AWS balance runs into about $600 a month for the main site, or something like $6k-$8k annually. This is of course fine for us to pay, given that our staff costs are much higher, but I would of course be a bit hesitant to pay this much for hosting a blog. My guess is to hit your targets, you could maybe pay half of that, so about $3-$5k annually.

To give some perspective on what someone might expect to need for a personal blog, a minimum virtual private server (VPS) runs about five dollars a month, and can easily handle 20k qph / 2k qpm if you bake your site. That's how my site is configured, and I have no problem when one of my posts hits the front page of HN.

(To be fair, my blog is far simpler than LW, entirely a hobby project, and being light on resource usage is an explicit goal)

[Meta?] Using the LessWrong codebase for a blog

It is possible to have the LW comment section while hosting your own blog; that's what I do.

For example, the comments shown on are the comments on the LW crosspost (

I present mine in a deliberately minimalist way, though you could choose to style them identically to on LW. The main downside to this approach is that people have to click through to LW to vote or comment.

Load More