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A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress
Jman91076mo40

My biggest question as always is "what specific piece of evidence would make you change your mind"

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Evolution of Modularity
Jman91075y20

Would you say that brain is a modular system because the environment it's meant to model is modular? E.g. social systems as a collection of modules (humans).

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Evolution of Modularity
Jman91075y30

Wouldn't this be exactly what you'd expect given that they are modular? Modular as in flexible and re-usable in different contexts for different purposes?

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The Cluster Structure of Thingspace
Jman91075y10

Why would more uncertainty = bigger cluster? Wouldn't uncertainty be expressed by using smaller clusters? I.e. if you're uncertain about a cluster you fall-back on a smaller subset of things that you are more certain pertain to that classification?

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Expecting Short Inferential Distances
Jman91076y-10

that last sentence ha

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