jmh

Wiki Contributions

Comments

Frame Control

When I started reading my first thought was, not independence but competitive alternatives. Then of course you pointed to the same. However, I'm wondering if that is really where it stops.

First I want to say I did not give the OP a full read and second that there are important parts of what I did read that I have fully digested. Given that, I have to wonder if the issue of frame control as raised by the author here is fully solved in the same way we think of economic problem solutions coming out of competitive supply and demand settings. 

Am I really in a good place personally just because I can pick and choose among those controlling my frame? Or, put differently, is multiple support options (i.e., able to expose one's self to multiple other frames) certain to eliminate the problem of frame control for that person? Something is nudging me in the direction of "not quite sure about that". Then again, maybe what we have is that one never escapes frame control so we're always talking about the best of a bunch of "bad" options. 

Omicron Variant Post #2

Regarding the Fauci's statement, I was just reading an article on the NIH site on the history of quarantines which included this observation:

"Decisions made by health authorities often seemed focused more on reassuring the public about efforts being made to stop transmission of the virus rather than on actually stopping transmission of the virus ." (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3559034/) This was made in the context of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic and Italy.

In some ways it is a bit of a disappointing read in that we don't seem to have really learned anything for centuries in some ways. 

[Linkpost] Being Normal by Brian Caplan

I cannot decide if I think the proposition doesn't slide into something of a No True Scotsman type fallacy.

I don't see why most of the weird people are not also just as susceptible to the same hypocrisy and dissonance as the normal person. I'm also a bit lost with regard to just what relative population sizes are needed to define who is or is not weird and who is or is not normal/conforming.

A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics

Thanks for the write up Victor. It was an interesting read, though I won't say I read very closely or critically.

I am interested in your views on a question about routing and how it's currently accomplished. I'm putting the containers into a network metaphor so they can be viewed just as any network packet traversing the internet. Is the container routing  similar in that regard where the "packet" hits various hops on the way and some mechanism exists for calculating the current best path to the end point?

It wasn't clear to me from your post if there was anything like a defined path at the outset or what "next ship out" in the case of some container delay on the way meant next ship that was eventually going to the destination or next ship with the quickest expected delivery -- or even if the information for making such an assessment was easily available. 

Worth checking your stock trading skills

If you are willing, how did that 600% distribute across your trading -- individual stocks, equity funds/etfs and derivatives (options? futures? both?).

How much of the supply-chain issues are due to monetary policy?
Answer by jmhNov 08, 20212

Anecdotal and very much "impressionistic" but for me I can look at 4 consumer products and cannot think of a good reason that loose monetary policy would really be driving demand for: auto tires, black stainless steel dishwashers, brake pads and toilet paper. 

My dishwash broke maybe 8 months ago. When I go to stores to look into replacements I'm still getting a story about "we don't know when ...".

I wanted to have replacement brake pads for my car as I will be taking it in for the safety inspection and orders both front and rear from Tire Rack. I got a call from them a bit later telling me they could only provide the front pads and wanted to know if I wanted to wait to get both together, have the fronts sent and revise the order to only front or to cancel or what. While talking with the rep I asked if this was a model issue or more general supply-chain related. He was very clear that it was not just my car's model that was the problem. We also talked a little about tires. Perhaps one of the be quotes from that might be "We will order 3000 tires and when the delivery arrives it's got maybe 300."

In the past week I was thinking I should buy another large pack of toilet paper now the supply from early (and kind of cheap type) purchases when it was a big deal were running out. Those shelves at the store I normally shop are pretty bare and only the cheap brand. That seems to have been the case for the week. Might change so....

So I can see that some of the price inflation that is attributed to the supply chain shock is probably due to monetary and fiscal policies I would suspect that is not the major explanation.

We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society

I'm not sure if this will be taking an incorrect conclusion from the post or not. The moral to the story I walked away with was no society will think itself one that is a post-scarcity one.

They don't make 'em like they used to

I do frequently find myself in that "they don't make them..." frame of mind. I also believe that part of the answer is located on that planned obsolescence axis but also realize that is a complicated issue to fully establish if you're not part of the decision-making structure for the particular item.

I have also heard of some other views that suggest the less durable nature of many modern products may be influenced a bit by the rate of innovations across a wide range of margins (direct inputs, new functionality/options, build materials,  digital versus analogue process management function...). 

This might be a testable proposition -- if true one would think that in areas where little innovation has existed -- or the significant impact from innovation has been achieved -- competition will push the product towards durability as a positive quality sought by consumers. In the areas where product innovation is just really getting opened up one should see, all things equal, a declining level of durability.

I would think one could also model durability against innovative forces with some degree of accuracy.

Hasn't anyone already done this?

What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?

I do agree that the distinction should be made and should be known, and that the confusion around the interpretation be reduced. At the same time calling it an "insight" appears to be due to either that very confusion or ignorance of the actual subject matter.

Since its creation, economists who are familiar with GDP have emphasized that GDP is a measure of economic activity, not economic or social well-being. In 1934, Simon Kuznets, the chief architect of the United States national accounting system and GDP, cautioned against equating GDP growth with economic or social well-being. 

https://thesolutionsjournal.com/2016/02/22/a-short-history-of-gdp-moving-towards-better-measures-of-human-well-being/

 

(Note -- I take the meaning of "value" above to refer to the more subjective utility-type meaning and not simply the price value for accounting at some aggregate level.)

Perhaps a more interesting question here might be why so many people, and specifically non-lay people who really should know better (professional economists, professional financial journalist, governmental staff and representatives), keep slipping into the error in framing/rhetoric if not flat out error in thought.

NATO: Cognitive Warfare Project

In some regards I see this as just more of the same. If we take the old saying about war just being politics on another field the CW seems like it's been around a long time. 

In that sense I wonder if advancements here are improvements to warfare -- a step away from the physical destruction -- or yet another example of why people are increasingly mistrusting in progress and technology/knowledge advancements ability to improve life and society.

Load More