Joachim Bartosik


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The Lottery Paradox

The description doesn't fully specify what's happening.

  1. Yovanni is answering questions in form of "Did X win the lottery". And gives correct answer 99% of the time. In that case you shouldn't believe that Xavier won the lottery. If you asked the question for all the participants you'd end up with list of (in expectation) about 10'000 people for which Yovanni claimed they won the lottery.
  2. Yovanni is making 1 claim about who won the lottery. And for questions like that Yovanni gives correct answers 99% of the time. In that case Phil got it and probability that Xavier won is 99%.


Also I think it's better to avoid using humans in examples like that and try to use something else / not agenty. Because humans can strategically lie (for example somebody can reach very high accuracy in statements they make by talking a lot about simple arithmetic operations. If they later say you should give them money and will receive 10x as much in return then you shouldn't conclude that there is 99+% chance this will work out and you should give them a lot of money).

A way to beat superrational/EDT agents?

You're ignoring that with probability 1/4 agent ends up in room B.n that case you don't get to decide but you get to collect reward. Which is 3 for (the other agent) guessing T, or 0 for (the other agent) guessing H.

So basically guessing H is increasing your own expected reward at the expense of the other agent's expected reward (before you actually went to a room you didn't know if you'll be an agent which gets to decide or not so your expected reward also included part of expected reward for agent which doesn't get an opportunity to make a guess).

Automatically Turning Off Computer at Night
There wasn’t an elegant way to set the specific times I wanted my computer to shut down.

You could change the script to check the time and configure cron to run it every 30 minutes, all day.

H=$(date +%H)
if [ $H -gt 8 ] || [ $H -lt 22 ]; then
# Don't try to shut down
# Script to try to shut down goes here
What's the best way for me to improve my English pronounciation?

It seems I misunderstood the level of English pronaunciaction you're at and the level you're aiming for. Could you clarify?

What I wrote in my comment is what made me comfortable with speaking in English. I got some compliments for my English later and some surprised answers when I said I wasn't a native speaker (which I count as weak and strongish evidence respectively for being good at spoken English). Im not sure I did much else but I might be able to write how I leveled up if I know for which level up you're looking (in case you read but don't reply: most likely the answer is practice(prefferably in a way that rewards you of it self)).

What's the best way for me to improve my English pronounciation?

Upboat for recommendation that I think wouldn't work for me but looks like it would work for many other people. It's always interesting to see those (at least for me ;) ).

What's the best way for me to improve my English pronounciation?

I guess this depends a lot on what kind of person you are. What worked for me was:

  • talking to people who don't know my native laguage. To do it I had to speak clearly enough to be understood. And I was interested in those people which madeit easier for me to put a bit of effort to make my pronaunciaction clear. Go on vacaction with people from other nations. Go to events where you can talk to foreigners. Those kinds of things.
  • listening to English. Watching movies, listening to podcasts, ...

Basically exposing myself to spoken English in ways that were rewarding on their own.

What is abstraction?

I think there is no reason to expect a single meaning of the word. You did a good job in enumerating uses of 'abstraction' and finding its theme (removed from specific). I don't understand what confusion remains though.

Policy Beats Morality

A link/ googleable phrase for KonMarie, phrase?

A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine

I kept on reading and wanted to check your numbers further (concrete math I could do in my head seems correct but I wanted to check moar) but I got lost in my tiredness and spreadseets. If you're interested in feedback on the math you're doing.. smaller steps are easier to verify. For example when you give the formula for P(D|+) in order to verify it I have to check the formula, value of each conditional probability (including figuring out formula for each of those), and the result at the same time.

It would be much easier to verify if you wrote down the intermediate steps (possibly simplifying verification from 30 minutes of spredsheet munching to a few in-head multiplications).

A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine

I'm pretty sure you got math wrong here:

O(D:¬D), read as the odds of dementia to no dementia, is the odds ratio that D is true compared to the odds ratio that D is false. O(D:¬D)=3:1 means that it's 3 times as likely that somebody has dementia than that they don't. It doesn't say anything about the magnitude of the probability, so it could be small, like 3% and 1%, or big, like 90% and 30%.

P(D or ¬D) = 1 (with P=1 one either has dementia or doesn't have it) and P(D and ¬D) = 0 (probability of having dementia and not having it is 0), so if O(D:¬D)=3:1 then P(D) = 75% and P(¬D) = 25%.

I mean in your examples.. if :P(D) = 3% and P(¬D) = 1% then what happens in other 96+% of cases (when patient neither has dementia nor doesn't have it)? If P(D) = 90% and P(¬D) = 30% what is the state of the 20+% of patients who both have dementia and don't have it?

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