LESSWRONG
LW

Joel Becker
2022160
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
No wikitag contributions to display.
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo10

I think "many people" is doing a lot of work here -- I've generally found the public reception to be very nuanced, moreso than I was expecting. See e.g. Gary Marcus' post

Reply
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo10

I think it doesn't -- our dev effects are so, so noisy!

Reply
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo50

We definitely do not claim that AI broadly slows down programmers! See tweet thread about this.

I think all the points you raised are an important part of the story -- we additionally go through some other factors that we think might explain the surprising result.

Reply
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo30

FWIW: this is my qualitative sense for other devs too.

Reply
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo82

We made this design decision because we wanted to max out on external validity, following the task length work which had fewer internal validity/more external validity concerns.

Reply
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Joel Becker2mo21

I (study author) responded to some of Ruby's points on twitter. Delighted for devs including Ruby to discuss their experience publicly, I think it's helpful for people to get a richer sense!

Reply
LawrenceC's Shortform
Joel Becker1y10

Found this helpful, thanks!

Reply
Sharing Information About Nonlinear
Joel Becker2y117

To "there were various suspicious/bad things Drew did," I would reply:

I have this opposing consideration. [...] I gather that part of the reason Alice and Chloe feel this way is that Drew did try to be helpful with respect to their concerns, at least to whatever degree was required for them to ask for him to be shielded from professional consequences.

and, to "the choice he's made to kinda hang around Emerson and Kat for this long," I would reply:

To the extent you believe that Nonlinear has been a disfunctional environment, in significant part due to domineering characteristics of senior staff, I think that you should also believe that a junior family member beginning to work in this environment is going to have a hard time reasoning through and pushing back against it.

Reply
Sharing Information About Nonlinear
Joel Becker2y2214

Repost from EA forum:

Thank you very much for sharing, Chloe.

Ben, Kat, Emerson, and readers of the original post have all noticed that the nature of Ben's process leads to selection against positive observations about Nonlinear. I encourage readers to notice that the reverse might also be true. Examples of selection against negative information include:

  1. Ben has reason to exclude stories that are less objective or have a less strong evidence base. The above comment is a concrete example of this.
    1. There's also something related here about the supposed unreliability of Alice as a source: Ben needs to include this to give a complete picture/because other people (in particular the Nonlinear co-founders) have said this. I strongly concur with Ben when he writes that he "found Alice very willing and ready to share primary sources [...] so I don’t believe her to be acting in bad faith." Personally, my impression is that people are making an incorrect inference about Alice from her characteristics (that are perhaps correlated with source-reliability in a large population, but aren't logically related, and aren't relevant in this case).
  2. To the extent that you expect other people to have been silenced (e.g. via anticipated retaliation), you might expect not to hear relevant information from them.
  3. To the extent that you expect Alice and Chloe to have had burnout-style experiences, you might expect not to read clarifications on or news about negative experiences.
    1. Until this post came out, this was true of ~everything in the post. 
    2. There is a reason the post was published 1.5 years after the relevant events took place -- people involved in the events really do not want to spend further mental effort on this.
Reply
Sharing Information About Nonlinear
Joel Becker2y76

I have this opposing consideration. I think it does speak to your point -- I gather that part of the reason Alice and Chloe feel this way is that Drew did try to be helpful with respect to their concerns, at least to whatever degree was required for them to ask for him to be shielded from professional consequences.

Here's another (in my view weaker, but perhaps more directly relevant to your point) consideration. To the extent you believe that Nonlinear has been a disfunctional environment, in significant part due to domineering characteristics of senior staff, I think that you should also believe that a junior family member beginning to work in this environment is going to have a hard time reasoning through and pushing back against it. Happy to expand.

Reply
Load More
31Forecasting future gains due to post-training enhancements
Ω
1y
Ω
2
67[Link post] Michael Nielsen's "Notes on Existential Risk from Artificial Superintelligence"
2y
12
10Reslab Request for Information: EA hardware projects
3y
0