I think it doesn't -- our dev effects are so, so noisy!
We definitely do not claim that AI broadly slows down programmers! See tweet thread about this.
I think all the points you raised are an important part of the story -- we additionally go through some other factors that we think might explain the surprising result.
FWIW: this is my qualitative sense for other devs too.
We made this design decision because we wanted to max out on external validity, following the task length work which had fewer internal validity/more external validity concerns.
I (study author) responded to some of Ruby's points on twitter. Delighted for devs including Ruby to discuss their experience publicly, I think it's helpful for people to get a richer sense!
Found this helpful, thanks!
To "there were various suspicious/bad things Drew did," I would reply:
I have this opposing consideration. [...] I gather that part of the reason Alice and Chloe feel this way is that Drew did try to be helpful with respect to their concerns, at least to whatever degree was required for them to ask for him to be shielded from professional consequences.
and, to "the choice he's made to kinda hang around Emerson and Kat for this long," I would reply:
To the extent you believe that Nonlinear has been a disfunctional environment, in significant part due to domineering characteristics of senior staff, I think that you should also believe that a junior family member beginning to work in this environment is going to have a hard time reasoning through and pushing back against it.
Repost from EA forum:
Thank you very much for sharing, Chloe.
Ben, Kat, Emerson, and readers of the original post have all noticed that the nature of Ben's process leads to selection against positive observations about Nonlinear. I encourage readers to notice that the reverse might also be true. Examples of selection against negative information include:
I have this opposing consideration. I think it does speak to your point -- I gather that part of the reason Alice and Chloe feel this way is that Drew did try to be helpful with respect to their concerns, at least to whatever degree was required for them to ask for him to be shielded from professional consequences.
Here's another (in my view weaker, but perhaps more directly relevant to your point) consideration. To the extent you believe that Nonlinear has been a disfunctional environment, in significant part due to domineering characteristics of senior staff, I think that you should also believe that a junior family member beginning to work in this environment is going to have a hard time reasoning through and pushing back against it. Happy to expand.
I think "many people" is doing a lot of work here -- I've generally found the public reception to be very nuanced, moreso than I was expecting. See e.g. Gary Marcus' post