Thank you for your thoughts! I read through your linked comment, and I think everything you wrote seems plausible to me. In fact, I also have short timelines and think that AGI is around the corner. As for your second perspective regarding correlated failure, I would be curious if you are willing to give an example.
Also, what do you think are the types of research questions (long-term) AI governance researchers should address if we are right?
If you have significant time trade-offs, getting your take on the second prompt would be most valuable.
1which makes me suspicious of the experiment’s findings.
Thank you for this post! Regarding the effectiveness going up, I think this is right. I don't have an exact resource to back up this claim (probably mentioned in this episode), but I am quite sure that Huberman mentioned that regular caffeine consumption increases the amount of dopamine receptors in one's brain, which allows more dopamine to bind. I am not confident on my explanation here, but I just wanted to share an idea based on what I have heard.
Thank you for this great post. I think https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/ could benefit from this as well!