I responded to you via DM
Carl and I have ultimately agreed to a 29:1 bet on the combined amount. The term will expire on July 25 2028 and may be extended by no more than 2 days upon reasonable request at Carl's sole discretion. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.
Eliezer, I'm offering you double the odds at 75:1, and would put up to $50k against your corresponding amount. If the UFO phenomenon is real, p(doom) may be much lower than you think, and in this view you'd probably be happy to pay it out.
To clarify, I would send the $5k now.
I could offer $5k against your $185k, Carl. If you're interested, DM me. Same odds as a European Roulette, albeit with a much delayed payment.
Willing to bet against Eliezer 100:1. Up to $50k available for grabs. If others are also interested in the bet, please contact me.
Ted and I agreed on a 40:1 bet where I take RatsWrongAboutUAP's side. The term will expire on Aug 2 2028. The resolution criteria is as laid out in the main post of this thread by the user RatsWrongAboutUAP. Unless either of the parties wishes to disclose it, the total amount agreed upon will remain in confidence between the parties.