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4JohnBuridan's Shortform
5y
6
The Cognitive-Theoretic Model of the Universe: A Partial Summary and Review
SebastianG6d10

I think people are confused about that CTMU is a mathematical metaphysics, but because even the intelligent and learning in our society are not used to thinking about metaphysics, there's a constant temptation to make CTMU about something else.

 "What types of things exist and why?"

I was struck by the similarity in style, if not content, to Leibniz and would be very interested to read a Langan commentary on Leibniz' metaphysics.

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Notes from European Progress Conference
SebastianG19d30

Good write up!

My contrary opinion is that discussion about EU policy is frequently more ambitious than discussion about Dyson spheres. Improving policy is hard and unattractive, but really matters for the next century.

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Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?
SebastianG6mo20

Sentence length is clearly a good proxy for the harder to measure "length of independent clause with its subordinates."

Although, I think it is helpful to bear in mind that punctuation marks at the end of a sentence are only a proxy for this, one can miss the forest for the trees.

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No one has the ball on 1500 Russian olympiad winners who've received HPMOR
SebastianG10mo30

I already have a Logic Tournament ques ion and rule set built for middle and high schoolers if you want to use it. 

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Stupid Reasons to Have More Kids
SebastianG10mo30

I'm now on number three.

Definitely on board with children shifting your value function a lot. One of them in particular (the newborn in the photo) shifts my value function more than I had anticipated.

In the recent interview Volodomyr Zelenskii said "if someone takes your child away, you'd bite his head off." ...Definitely true. And come to think of it... is that a Count Ugolino reference from the Divine Comedy?

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JohnBuridan's Shortform
SebastianG10mo62

Futarchy within Civilization 5.

When I participated in the Good Judgment Project's IARPA research, we had to predict things about a game of civilization. Now, imagine if you had a game of civilization. Six players all playing against each other, and AI agents representing and having full access to each civilization's data. Then, a common betting market for particular outcomes of the game. For example, by turn 100, who will have the largest army? What will culture be for this civilization at turn 150? Questions of that nature. If futarchy is largely based on betting markets, and AIs are can simulate various betting agents, then WHY NOT SANDBOX THEM AND TRY IT? Surely, someone is already working on this?

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JohnBuridan's Shortform
SebastianG10mo10

You can buy bulk tamiflu powder here: https://www.selleckchem.com/products/oseltamivir-phosphate-Tamiflu.html And instructions for preparation are here: https://dph.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/idph/files/publications/tami-flu-flyer-050316.pdf $300 for 13 doses, which would last you about 6 days, dosing the recommended twice daily during a pandemic. Shelf life of the powder is 2 years. Would any medicine nerd sanity check that I am not missing something essential?

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JohnBuridan's Shortform
SebastianG10mo91

Incentives!

Don't forget that reported cases of H5N1 are actually just reported cases, and that if you don't test your cattle, you won't have anything to report. It would be inconvenient if your cows had it, or any of your workers were sick with it (luckily tests aren't really available), because there would be a pause and perhaps a loss in your already razor thin margins of operation. The incentive to track and understand aren't there. So just let it rip through the herd. It doesn't kill cows anyway...

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OpenAI Email Archives (from Musk v. Altman and OpenAI blog)
SebastianG1y42

From a historical perspective this is an excellent treasure cache. Truly when you are the cutting edge of something ideas, relationships, personality, and economics all truly come together to drive history.

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Safety isn’t safety without a social model (or: dispelling the myth of per se technical safety)
SebastianG1y20

I would not be surprised if lurking in the background of my thought is Tyler Cowen. He's a huge influence on me. But I was thinking of specific examples. I don't know of a good general history of "humanizing".

What I had explicitly in mind was the historical development of automobile safety: seatbelts and airbags. There is a  history of invention, innovation, deployment, and legal mandating that is long and varied for these.

How long did it take between the discovery of damaging chlorofluorocarbons and their demise? Or for asbestos and its abatement - how much does society pay for this process? What's the delta between climate change research and renewables investment? 

Essentially, many an externality can be internalized once it is named and drawn attention to and the costs are realized.

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8The Structure of Professional Revolutions
9mo
0
9Are UV-C Air purifiers so useful?
Q
1y
Q
0
5Freedom and Privacy of Thought Architectures
1y
2
8Sarajevo 1914: Black Swan Questions
1y
0
5The Act Itself: Exceptionless Moral Norms
2y
11
25CHAT Diplomacy: LLMs and National Security
2y
6
7310 Years of LessWrong
3y
2
17Dissolve: The Petty Crimes of Blaise Pascal
3y
4
22Solstice Movie Review: Summer Wars
3y
6
13Long Review: Economic Hierarchies
4y
4
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