Jonathan_Graehl

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RationalWiki on face masks

Yes, RationalWiki are collectively shallow+glib 'believe Science' snarkists.

parenting rules

What makes you now think Praise Research is fake science?

Are index funds still a good investment?

I'm 100% in unleveraged equity index funds. If I were to want to decrease how long I am I'd just hold some cash, right? If I wanted to go more long with leverage, would it make sense to preferentially do that in IRA accounts or in taxable?

Pain is not the unit of Effort

This is nice. But of course sometimes it hurts to try to do something you should in fact do.

Please steelman the accusations of election fraud

Yet Biden underperformed polls everywhere by about 6 percentage points.

Please steelman the accusations of election fraud

(I don't think there's low motive to cheat on the other side or that they're more moral, but rather that a single rural area has less power to credibly delay and report a large vote difference to decide anything, and that getting away with a large collection of small cheats is less likely)

Please steelman the accusations of election fraud

Even Trump's team probably doesn't yet know how/what they're going to prove, but it's historically true that urban places forge the most votes, and so Biden's side had more opportunity to benefit from laxness in this area. Since demonstrating that the fair outcome should have been for Trump is a high bar, we should patiently expose and punish wrongdoers without undue concern for that.

Has Eliezer ever retracted his statements about weight loss?

It's hard to say he's wrong. In any case why should you assign general 'trust' values to people?

How much to worry about the US election unrest?

~zero. But buy a shotgun just in case riots (which are more than possible - they're ongoing) get aggressive.

How worried are the relevant experts about a magnetic pole reversal?

3. is no cause for concern at all. 2. ('overdue') presumes some knowledge of mechanism, which I don't have. Roughly speaking it's a 1 in 300,000 risk each year and not extinction level. Additionally, we can easily employ radiation poisoning prophylactics if there's some long-lasting decreased shielding (which I highly doubt - there's less shielding at the poles, right, but no big deal - it's not as though the field temporarily disappears completely!)

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