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Epistemic status: a good-faith guess at how the world might turn out, after ~30 hours of effort. This post is an exercise in describing what I think will happen with AI progress "by default", i.e. by attempting to extrapolate various trends and considering their implications, before the next US presidential...
Summary In 2021, @Daniel Kokotajlo wrote What 2026 Looks Like, in which he sketched a possible version of each year from 2022 - 2026. In his words: > The goal is to write out a detailed future history (“trajectory”) that is as realistic (to [him]) as [he] can currently manage...
As uncertainty grows around how AI development will affect culture and society, it becomes more valuable to compare track records of predictions about technological progress. I've recently been working on automating parts of the methodology from Arb's Scoring The Big 3's Predictive Performance report[1], and have had some promising preliminary...
Your mind is a prediction machine, constantly trying to anticipate the world around you and altering its forecasts based on new information. It’s always doing this as a background process. But what would happen if you deliberately trained this skill? Could you get better at predicting your projects, your life,...