LESSWRONG
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Joseph Gardi
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The Dictatorship Problem
Joseph Gardi1y10

Just my opinion: the concerns are valid but exaggerated.

Perhaps exaggeration is justified in order to get people's attention since most americans are still treating this as a normal election.

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Why I’m not a Bayesian
Joseph Gardi1y10

My attempt at a TLDR for this: Bayesian assign a probability to each belief in order to represent uncertainty but this is insufficient because there are multiple kinds of uncertainty: vagueness, approximation, context-dependence, and sense vs nonsense, knightian. And sometimes we humans make logical errors when we try to do bayesian inference. 

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1Factoring P(doom) into a bayesian network
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