https://manifold.markets/Joshua
Since it looks like we won't be getting a canonical answer, any thoughts on what exactly the Peverell Prophecy means?
"Three shall be Peverell’s sons and three their devices by which Death shall be defeated."
Having the Death Eaters look around makes sense, but the paralysis seems contrived to me. It's a very specific level of intelligence between what he have now and just having Mr. Grim cast Expelliarmus. I think it is more realistic for Voldemort to have dismissed the threat than for him to have considered it and decided that paralyzing Harry was the best solution.
Are you referring to the sexual stuff? I don't think that shows a difference in his personality so much as a lack of censorship. I could easily conceive of canon Draco making such comments, but them never being in the books due to censorship.
All the adults certainly were, but what about the students? Draco was the same before Harry started corrupting him, Ron's still an idiot, Neville is still a Hufflepuff, etc. Maybe Fred and George are a bit more awesome, and Zabini is an entirely different person, but aside from that Harry's peers seem to have been kept to the same level. If Hermione were a sensible person, she'd probably outclass Harry just as much as she does in canon, and then the story would be Hermione Granger and How She Learned the Methods of Rationality and Became Omnipotent.
Interesting! I've never seen someone try to make a such a comprehensive set of baseline rules, it seems like a good project!
I think the most controversial item here is 13:
Could you give some examples of markets you think this rule should apply to? For example, I run the the market on Eliezer's 150k UFO bet:
Would you resolve that market early, if you were the market creator and if it never went below 90% for a year?
For your own markets, is this policy retroactive? Will you resolve this market early?