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Astronomy, space exploration and the Great Filter

3y
19 min read
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Tachyon neutrinos (again)

3y
1 min read
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Dealing with trolling and the signal to noise ratio

6y
1 min read
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243

Large scale problems, cognitive biases, and existential risk

6y
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3

[link]s Recent developments in life-extension

7y
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1

Curiosity, Adam Savage, and Life-Extension

7y
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19

Planets in the habitable zone, the Drake Equation, and the Great Filter

7y
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64

Edward Nelson claims proof of inconsistency in Peano Arithmetic

7y
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116

EFF stops accepting Bitcoins

7y
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A potential problem with using Solomonoff induction as a prior

7y
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18

Recent Comments

I don't know of any broader, larger trends. It is worth noting here that the Rabbis of the Talmud themselves thought that the prior texts (especially the Torah itself) were infallible, so it seems that part of what might be happening is that over time, more and more gets put into the very-holy-text ...(read more)

MWI doesn't say anything about other constants- the other parts of our wavefunction should have the same constants. However, other multiverse hypotheses do suggest that physical constants could eb different.

That seems like an accurate analysis.

I'm actually more concerned about an error in logic. If one estimates a probability of say k that in a given year that climate change will cause an extinction event, then the probability of it occurring in any given string of years is not the obvious one, since...(read more)

Mainstream discussion of existential risk is becoming more of a thing, A recent example is [this article in The Atlantic](http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/a-human-extinction-isnt-that-unlikely/480444/). They do mention a variety of risks but focus on nuclear war and worst case ...(read more)

When people arguing with VoiceOfRa got several downvotes in a row, the conclusion drawn was sockpuppets.

There was substantially more evidence that VoiceOfRa was downvoting in a retributive fashion, including database evidence.

Slashdot had Karma years before Reddit and was not nearly as successful. Granted it didn't try to do general forum discussions but just news articles, but this suggests that karma is not the whole story.

Further possible evidence for a Great Filter: A recent paper suggests that as long as the probability of an intelligent species arising on a habitable planet is not tiny, at least about 10^-24 then with very high probability humans are not the only civilization to have ever been in the observable un...(read more)

> The most interesting unknown in the future is the time of creation of Strong AI. Our priors are insufficient to predict it because it is such a unique task.

I'm not sure this follows. The primary problems with predicting the rise of Strong AI apply to most other artificial existential risks also....(read more)

> Research on expert judgement indicates experts are just as bad as nonexperts in some counterintuitive ways, like predicting the outcome of a thing,

Do you have a citation for this? My understanding was that in many fields experts perform better than nonexperts. The main thing that experts share i...(read more)