jp

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jp's Comments

Announcement: LessWrong Coronavirus Links Database 2.0

Another suggestion: could this post be linked to by the link database page?

Announcement: LessWrong Coronavirus Links Database 2.0

Suggestion: a forecasting section. Already some of your "Other" links would do well there.

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Does anyone want to venture a guess for the true number of cases in the Bay Area right now?

I just some rough back-of-the-envelope calculations, following the method here. Currently there are 2 deaths in the Bay Area. I keep his time-till-death rate of 17.3 days, but substitute a doubling time of 3 days, based on Our World in Data's US number. I get 2*100*exp(17.3*.231) ≈ 11,000, or about 2/1000 bay area residents. Super non-robust number, take with several grains of salt.

(.231 is the rate I get when solving for r in the exponential growth function for a doubling in 3 days.)

March Coronavirus Open Thread

Why not ask this as a question post?

Raemon's Scratchpad

I intuitively think it's good, but have in fact noticed myself clicking to dismiss it despite not having read it or thought about whether I'd like to read it.

Honoring Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2019

Rohin argues elsewhere for taking a vote (at least in principal). If 50% vote in favor, then he has successfully avoided "falling into the unilateralist's curse" and has gotten $1.6k for AMF. He even has some bonus for "solved the unilateralist's curse in a way that's not just "sit on his hands". Now, it's probably worth subtracting points for "the LW team asked them not to blow up the site and the community decided to anyway." But I'd consider it fair play.

Honoring Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2019

It could partially motivated by lifesaving but they wouldn't have donated otherwise. Like, not if they're a perfectly rational agent, but hey.

Focus

I feel like I'd rather live in the world where I could leave slack unblocked and still focus on my codebase that takes 25 seconds to reload on file save.

Focus

I felt like this was a scarily accurate description of my focus situation. And then I read the part about the chocolate, and like, good lord, get out of my head.

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