I don't understand why this is evidence that "EA Funds (other than the global health and development one) currently funges heavily with GiveWell recommended charities", which was Howie's original question. It seems like evidence that donations to OpenPhil (which afaik cannot be made by individual donors) funge against donations to the long-term future EA fund.
I like the general thrust here, although I have a different version of this idea, which I would call "minimizing philosophical pre-commitments". For instance, there is a great deal of debate about whether Bayesian probability is a reasonable philosophical foundation for statistical reasoning. It seems that it would be better, all else equal, for approaches to AI alignment to not hinge on being on the right side of this debate.
I think there are some places where it is hard to avoid pre-commitments. For instance, while this isn't quite a philosophical pre-commitment, it is probably hard to develop approaches that are simultaneously optimized for short and long timelines. In this case it is probably better to explicitly do case splitting on the two worlds and have some subset of people pursuing approaches that are good in each individual world.
Thanks for writing this Aaron! (And for engaging with some of the common arguments for/against AI safety work.)
I personally am very uncertain about whether to expect a singularity/fast take-off (I think it is plausible but far from certain). Some reasons that I am still very interested in AI safety are the following:
Happy to expand on/discuss any of the above points if you are interested.
Very minor nitpick, but just to add, FLI is as far as I know not formally affiliated with MIT. (FHI is in fact a formal institute at Oxford.)
I enjoy reading your posts because they often consist of clear explanations of concepts I wish more people appreciated. But I think this is the first instance where I feel I got something that I actually hadn't thought about before at all, so I wanted to convey extra appreciation for writing it up.
I think the conflation is "decades out" and "far away".
Points 1-5 at the beginning of the post are all primarily about community-building and personal development externalities of the project, and not about the donation itself.
?? If you literally mean minimum-wage, I think that is less than 10,000 pounds... although agree with the general thrust of your point about the money being more valuanle than the time (but think you are missing the spirit of the exercise as outlined in the post).