Justin Bullock

This is an 8-page comprehensive summary of the results from Threshold 2030: a recent expert conference on economic impacts hosted by Convergence Analysis, Metaculus, and the Future of Life Institute. Please see the linkpost for the full end-to-end report, which is 80 pages of analysis and 100+ pages of raw...

Note: This report was conducted in June 2024 and is based on research originally commissioned by the Future of Life Foundation (FLF). The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not represent the positions of FLF. This report investigates Training Data Attribution (TDA)...

Note: This report was conducted in June 2024 and is based on research originally commissioned by the Future of Life Foundation (FLF). The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not represent the positions of FLF. This report investigates Training Data Attribution (TDA)...

We analyze three prominent strategies for governing transformative AI (TAI) development: Cooperative Development, Strategic Advantage, and Global Moratorium. We evaluate these strategies across varying levels of alignment difficulty and development timelines, examining their effectiveness in preventing catastrophic risks while preserving beneficial AI development. Our analysis reveals that strategy preferences shift...

This post is part of a series by Convergence Analysis. An earlier post introduced scenario planning for AI risk. In this post, we argue for the importance of a related concept: theories of victory. > In order to improve your game you must study the endgame before everything else; for,...

Cross-posted on our website: https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/publications/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda Cross-posted on the EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JyhoTRXxYvLfFycXi/ai-clarity-an-initial-research-agenda Executive Summary Transformative AI (TAI) has the potential to solve many of humanity's most pressing problems, but it may also pose an existential threat to our future. This significant potential of TAI warrants careful study of the AI’s possible...

This post is part of a series by the AI Clarity team at Convergence Analysis. In our previous post, Corin Katzke reviewed methods for applying scenario planning methods to AI existential risk strategy. In this post, we want to provide the motivation for our focus on transformative AI. Overview We...