I believe you're looking for A Half-Built Garden. Thought provocing hard sci-fi book about motherhood, community, gender, ecology, and aliens. I highly recommend it, in general and especially given your desired genre.
The market named "This Market Will Resolve No At The End Of 2025" will resolve to No at the end of 2025. Like it says in its title. What's unclear about this?
The fact that you so naturally used the word "version" here (it was essentially invisible, it didn't feel like a terminology choice at all) suggests that "version" would be a good term to use instead of "lens". Downside being that it's a sufficiently common word that it doesn't sound like a Term of Art.
1Let's apply some data to this!
I've been in two high-stakes bad-vibe situations. (In one of them, someone else initially got the bad vibes, but I know enough details to comment on it.) In both cases, asking around would have revealed the issue. However, in both cases the people who knew the problematic person well, had either a good impression of them, or a very bad impression of them. Because there's a pattern where someone who's problematic in some way is also charismatic, or good at making up for it in other ways, etc. So my very rough model of these situations is that there were a bunch of people you could have asked about them and gotten "looks fine" with 60% probability or "stay the fuck away" with 40% probability. If you have only have a few data points of this variety, you'd want to trust your vibes because false negatives can be very costly.
stick to public spaces for a first date, do a web search for the person’s name, establish boundaries and stick to them, be prepared with concrete plans to react to signs of danger, etc.
These mitigations would do nothing against a lot of real relationship failures. Imagine that everything goes swimmingly for the first year. Then you start to realize that even though everything your partner has been doing makes sense on the surface, if you step back and look at the big picture their actions tend to have the effect of separating you from your friends and blaming yourself for a lot of things, and it just doesn't seem healthy. When you finally decide to break up, it's an extremely painful process because: (i) your partner is better at weaving stories than you, and from their perspective you're the problematic person (ii) your friends all know your partner, and they've made a good impression, (iii) you will continue to see them at social events, and (iv) even after all of this, you don't think they ever purposefully acted maliciously toward you.
Or in the words of Sean Carroll's Poetic Naturalism:
- There are many ways of talking about the world.
- All good ways of talking must be consistent with one another and with the world.
- Our purposes in the moment determine the best way of talking.
A "way of talking" is a map, and "the world" is the territory.
The orthogonality thesis doesn't say anything about intelligences that have no goals. It says that an intelligence can have any specific goal. So I'm not sure you've actually argued against the orthogonality thesis.
And English has it backwards. You can see the past, but not the future. The thing which just happened is most clear. The future comes at us from behind.
Here's the reasoning I intuitively want to apply:
where X = "you roll two 6s in a row by roll N", Y = "you roll at least two 6s by roll N", and Z = "the first N rolls are all even".
This is valid, right? And not particularly relevant to the stated problem, due to the "by roll N" qualifiers mucking up the statements in complicated ways?
Where's the pain?
"There exists a place in your cognition that feels like an expectation but actually stores an action plan that your body will follow, and you can load plans into it." is a valuable insight and I'm not sure I've seen it stated quite in that form elsewhere.
Do you have more you could say about how cognition works, or reliable references to point at?
Everything I've read is either true but too specific or low level to be useful (on the science end) or mixed with nonsense (on the meditation end), and my own mind is too muddled to easily distinguish true facts about how it works from almost-true facts about how it works. This makes building up a reliable model really hard.