If this is of interest to you, may I suggest taking a look at some of the recent work my Alec Litowitz (see below). His background is more from the investing world, but as a result he has a unique focus on making practical decisions under large degrees of uncertainty. Specifically, he goes into an important explanation about the difference between "risk" (which is known possibilities and probabilities) and "uncertainty" (which is known possibilities but not probabilities). Though subtle as you note, the difference between these two has massive implications... (read more)
If this is of interest to you, may I suggest taking a look at some of the recent work my Alec Litowitz (see below). His background is more from the investing world, but as a result he has a unique focus on making practical decisions under large degrees of uncertainty. Specifically, he goes into an important explanation about the difference between "risk" (which is known possibilities and probabilities) and "uncertainty" (which is known possibilities but not probabilities). Though subtle as you note, the difference between these two has massive implications... (read more)