kairos_ — LessWrong

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kairos_ — LessWrong

Replying toTail SP 500 Call Options

kairos_6d

Tail SP 500 Call Options

One year later, do you still agree with this analysis?

kairos_5mo

A post going over how much compute each frontier AI lab has will likely be very helpful.

kairos_10mo

I believe the Scramblers from blindsight weren’t self aware, which means they couldn’t think about their own interactions with the world.

As I recall the crew was giving one of the Scramblers a series of cognitive tests. It aced all the tests that had to do with numbers and spatial reasoning, but failed a test that required the testee to be self aware.

kairos_10mo

I agree with you that the "structure of suffering" is likely to be represented in the neurons of shrimp. I think it's clear that shrimps may "suffer" in the sense that they react to pain, move away from sources of pain, would prefer to be in a painless state rather than a painful state, etc.

But where I diverge from the conclusions drawn by Rethink Priorities is that I believe shrimp are less "conscious" (for a lack of a better word) than humans and less their suffering matters less. Though shrimp show outward signs of pain, I sincerely doubt that with just 100,000 neurons there's much of a subjective experience going on there.... (read more)

Replying toSolving willpower seems easier than solving aging

kairos_11mo

Solving willpower seems easier than solving aging

Is it an FDA issue or moreso a drug discovery issue?

Replying toSolving willpower seems easier than solving aging

kairos_11mo

Solving willpower seems easier than solving aging

Adderall helps to combat akrasia to an extent, though results may vary between people (possibly modafinal as well though I haven't tried it). Though it is far from a "magic pill" as the effects of the pill go away + side effects + utility from long term use is uncertain.

How easy would it be to develop a drug that's more effective than Adderall or the other ADHD stimulants? It was developed in the 1970s, nearly 50 years ago, and the fact that we don't have a better alternative right now tells me we picked the low hanging fruit. But are there active efforts to developing a better drug? I'm not sure.

Replying to$300 Fermi Model Competition

kairos_1y

$300 Fermi Model Competition

Thanks for hosting this competition!

Fermi Estimate: How many lives would be saved if every person in the west donated 10% of their income to EA related, highly effective charities?

Model

Donation Pool:
– Assume “the West” produces roughly $40 trillion in GDP per year.
– At a 10% donation rate, that yields about $4 trillion available annually.
Rethinking Cost‐Effectiveness:
– While past benchmarks often cite figures around $3,000 per life saved for top interventions, current estimates vary widely (from roughly $3,000 up to $20,000 per life) and only a limited pool of opportunities exists at the very low end.
– In effect, the best interventions can only absorb a relatively small fraction of the enormous $4 trillion pool.
Diminishing Returns and Saturation:
To capture

... (read 483 more words →)

Replying toOrienting to 3 year AGI timelines

kairos_1y

Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines

The thing with NVIDIA though is that the IV is so high and so are premiums. I spent a few hours looking for a better trade than that, though I think it's pretty solid.

I think SPY calls can possibly be much better than NVIDIA calls. The market doesn't expect the stock market to go up significantly in the next few years, but I think theres a chance it will assuming timelines are short. Here's the SPY YoY growth during the internet boom in the 90s.

Year 2000 saw a -9.7% return ($86.54) 1999: +20.4% ($95.88) 1998: +28.7% ($79.65) 1997: +33.5% ($61.89) 1996: +22.5% ($46.37) 1995: +38.0% ($37.85) 1994: +0.4% ($27.42)

Here we see that from any two year period from... (read more)

Replying toOrienting to 3 year AGI timelines

kairos_1y

Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines

Assuming short timelines, I wonder how much NVIDIA's stock will increase and if anywhere near a 100x return is possible.

The further out and higher strike price NVIDIA call I could find is at 290$ SP, dated Jan 15 2027, at $13.25. If NVIDIA goes to a 10T market cap I get an 8x return on investment, if the company goes to a 15T market cap I get a ~20x return on investment.

I'm not sure how realistic it is for NVIDIA to increase past a 15 Trillion Market cap. Plus, increased government intervention seems like it would negatively impact profits.

kairos_2y

Polymarket has gotten lots of attention in recent months, but I was shocked to find out how much inefficency there really is.

There was a market titled "What will Trump say during his RNC speech?" that was up a few days ago. At 7 pm, the transcript for the speech was leaked, and you could easily find it by a google search or looking at the polymarket discord.

Trump started his speech at 9:30, and it was immediately that he was using the script. One entire hour into the speech I stumbled onto the transcript on Polymarkets discord. Despite the word "prisons" being in the leaked transcript that Trump was halfway through, Polymarket only gave it a 70% chance of being said. I quickly went to bet and made free money.

To be fair it was a smaller market with 800k in bets, but nonetheless I was shocked on how easy it was to make risk-free money.